AkashicWI-04 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 98%; raw Republican YES price 2%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Gwen MooreDIncumbentNominee | |
| Tim RogersRNominee | not yet filing |
| Purnima NathR | not yet filing |
| Arthur BurksIndependent | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Safe Democratic Milwaukee seat (D+26, most Democratic in Wisconsin); Aug 11 primary not yet held. Moore (incumbent, 74.8% in 2024) faces minor Democratic primary challenger Amy Donahue. Republican primary between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers (both perennial candidates). Arthur Burks running as an independent. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WI-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+52 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+53 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+52 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+54 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+77 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+43 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →