U.S. Senate / Class 2
Arkansas — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Safe Rpredicted marginR+30.6
96%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 97% chance to win.
Akashic modelRepublican 96%MarketRepublican 97%agree · 1 pts in line
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
The substrate
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AR state page.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →