Idaho — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jim RischRIncumbentNominee | |
| Todd AchillesIndependentNominee | |
| David RothDNominee | not yet filing |
| Matt LoesbyLibertarianNominee | not yet filing |
| Natalie FlemingIndependentNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Primary held May 19, 2026. Incumbent Jim Risch (R) is seeking a fourth term and won the GOP nomination (~67.3%). David Roth (D, 2022 nominee) won the Democratic primary (~61.9%). Matt Loesby is the Libertarian nominee. Independents Todd Achilles (former Democratic state representative) and Natalie Fleming qualified for the Nov 3 general-election ballot via petition. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the ID state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+38 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+46 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →