Akashic2026 forecast
Kansas — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Likely R
83%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 17%; raw Republican YES price 84%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Total volume
$37k
Liquidity
$25k
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Roger MarshallRIncumbentNominee | for | |
| Adam HamiltonDNominee | not yet filing | — |
| Erik MurrayD | — | |
| Patrick SchmidtD | — | |
| Christy DavisD |
The substrate
Recent elections · U.S. Senate · Kansas
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+11 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+30 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+53 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →