Kansas — U.S. Senate
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 83% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Roger MarshallRIncumbentPresumptive | for | |
| Erik MurrayD | — | |
| Patrick SchmidtD | — | |
| Christy DavisD | — | |
| Adam HamiltonD | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Primary not yet held (Aug 4, 2026). Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) is seeking re-election; he faces only a minor primary challenger (Chase LaPorte) and is effectively the presumptive GOP nominee. The Democratic primary is a crowded, unsettled field of ~10 with no clear frontrunner (Hamilton led an early-June poll at only ~18%); the four listed are the most prominent declared Democrats. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the KS state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+11 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+30 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+53 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →