AkashicKentucky — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 6%; raw Republican YES price 92%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Andy BarrRNominee | for against | |
| Charles BookerDNominee | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat; incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) not seeking re-election, excluded. Barr won the GOP primary (60.5%) over Daniel Cameron (Nate Morris withdrew after Trump endorsed Barr). Booker won the Dem primary (47%) over Amy McGrath and Pamela Stevenson. No third-party general candidate confirmed as of 2026-06-25. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+20 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+15 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+15 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+11 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →