Kentucky
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +11.7% |
| 1896 | −0.1% |
| 1900 | +1.7% |
| 1904 | +2.7% |
| 1908 | +1.7% |
| 1912 | +23.2% |
| 1916 | +5.4% |
| 1920 | +0.4% |
| 1924 | −2.9% |
| 1928 | −18.9% |
| 1932 | +18.9% |
| 1936 | +18.6% |
| 1940 | +15.1% |
| 1944 | +9.2% |
| 1948 | +15.3% |
| 1952 | +0.1% |
| 1956 | −9.1% |
| 1960 | −7.2% |
| 1964 | +28.4% |
| 1968 | −6.1% |
| 1972 | −28.6% |
| 1976 | +7.2% |
| 1980 | −1.5% |
| 1984 | −20.7% |
| 1988 | −11.6% |
| 1992 | +3.2% |
| 1996 | +1.0% |
| 2000 | −15.1% |
| 2004 | −19.9% |
| 2008 | −16.2% |
| 2012 | −22.7% |
| 2016 | −29.8% |
| 2020 | −25.9% |
| 2024 | −30.5% |
On the ballot
Open seat; incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) not seeking re-election, excluded. Barr won the GOP primary (60.5%) over Daniel Cameron (Nate Morris withdrew after Trump endorsed Barr). Booker won the Dem primary (47%) over Amy McGrath and Pamela Stevenson. No third-party general candidate confirmed as of 2026-06-25.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 1 · R 5 | 26.9% | 73.1% | 1,905,534 | |
| D 1 · R 5 | 33.5% | 65.1% | 1,463,418 | |
| D 1 · R 5 | 34.8% | 64.5% | 2,115,895 | |
| D 1 · R 5 | 39.0% | 59.6% | 1,569,798 |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 26 points more Democratic.
3,555,291 registered voters · 2024
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+7,269 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +17,478 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +3,852 |
| 2012 | −3,564 |
| 2013 | −2,091 |
| 2014 | −7,102 |
| 2015 | −5,275 |
| 2016 | −3,752 |
| 2017 | +1,936 |
| 2018 | +226 |
| 2019 | −1,541 |
| 2021 | +3,010 |
| 2022 | +10,343 |
| 2023 | +7,154 |
| 2024 | +7,013 |
| 2025 | +7,269 |
Pike County voted Democratic by 29.6 points in 1996 and Republican by 65.4 in 2024 — a 95-point shift in a single generation.
- The federal-state split
- R+30.5 for president in 2024, yet Democrat Andy Beshear won the governorship in 2019 and again in 2023 · MIT Election Lab; Akashic officeholder roster
- The presidential floor
- R+15.1 (2000) → R+25.9 (2020) → R+30.5 (2024), after Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992 and 1996 · MIT Election Lab
- The two blue islands
- Fayette County (Lexington) D+18.1 and Jefferson County (Louisville) D+16.5 — together over a fifth of the statewide vote · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The coalfield’s turn
- Pike County D+29.6 (1996) → R+65.4 (2024), a 95-point shift; Floyd moved 104 points, Harlan 101; Martin County is now R+83.6, the reddest · MIT Election Lab
- Poor and Protestant
- Median household income $63,726 and the poverty rate 16.1% — each 46th of 50; 31.3% Evangelical adherents, 6th-highest · ACS 2024 5-year; 2020 U.S. Religion Census
- Open Senate seat in 2026
- McConnell, in office since 1984, is retiring; Rep. Andy Barr (R) vs Charles Booker (D); no governor’s race until 2027 · Akashic 2026 forecast
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/KY/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.