state house districtArizona 4th State House District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+18.1
2008R+14.1
2012R+18.9
2016R+4.3
2020D+0.9
2024R+3.5
net swing · 2004→2024D+14.5R+18.1 → R+3.5
vs. U.S. · 2024R+2.1R+3.5 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 78.6% of 194,192 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
72,931
78,326
1,433
152,690
194,192
78.6%
2020
78,405
76,976
1,913
157,294
182,714†
86.1%
2016
57,198
62,740
8,175
128,113
164,970†
77.7%
2012
47,516
70,231
2,507
120,254
150,718†
79.8%
2008
50,985
67,994
1,346
120,325
145,030†
83.0%
2004
42,705
61,788
1,089
105,582
139,342†
75.8%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupAZ HD 4ArizonaUnited States
German18.7%12.6%12.5%
English14.8%10.2%9.5%
Irish13.3%8.9%9.4%
Italian6.6%4.1%4.8%
American6.3%4.0%5.3%
Polish3.3%2.0%2.2%
French2.6%1.8%1.6%
Scottish2.6%1.7%1.3%
Mexican8.5%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.2%0.7%1.8%
Guatemalan0.2%0.4%0.5%
Spaniard0.2%0.5%—
Asian Indian1.8%0.9%1.4%
Chinese1.1%0.6%1.3%
Filipino1.1%0.7%0.9%
Vietnamese0.9%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.4%0.3%0.4%
Japanese0.3%0.2%0.2%
African American†1.6%3.6%9.9%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
AZ HD 4
Arizona
United States
Median age
45.3
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
9.3%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
16.3%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
AZ HD 4
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$110,119
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
6.5%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
36.7%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
AZ HD 4
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
26.0%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
19.4%
19.3%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.4%
1.0%
2.0%
Other languages
1.0%
2.0%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
AZ HD 4
Arizona
United States
Catholic
—
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Arizona 4th State House District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−18.1%
2008
−14.1%
2012
−18.9%
2016
−4.3%
2020
+0.9%
2024
−3.5%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
47.8%Harris72,931
51.3%Trump78,326
0.9%
R+3.5
R+4.4
R+2.1
152,690
D
49.8%Biden78,405
48.9%Trump76,976
1.2%
D+0.9
D+5.2
R+3.5
157,294
R
44.6%Clinton57,198
49.0%Trump62,740
6.4%
R+4.3
D+14.6
R+6.4
128,113
R
39.5%Obama47,516
58.4%Romney70,231
2.1%
R+18.9
R+4.8
R+22.7
120,254
R
42.4%Obama50,985
56.5%McCain67,994
1.1%
R+14.1
D+3.9
R+21.4
120,325
R
40.4%Kerry42,705
58.5%Bush61,788
1.0%
R+18.1
—
R+15.6
105,582
current representation
Current officeholders
RMatt GressState House · 4
RPamela CarterState House · 4
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
The district recorded a Republican presidential margin of R+3.5 in 2024 and R+14.1 in 2008, switching sides at least once in between. The district had about 50,000 residents, 58.6% White alone in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 0.9 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 18.9 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 3.5 points.
A population of 244,298, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $110,119 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 17 and Assembly District 5.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arizona 4th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/04004/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Arizona 4th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona 4th State House District voted Republican by 3.5 points (R+3.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 152,690 votes cast, 72,931 went Democratic and 78,326 went Republican.
When did Arizona 4th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arizona 4th State House District voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Arizona 4th State House District?
Arizona 4th State House District has a population of 244,298 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona 4th State House District?
Median household income in Arizona 4th State House District is $110,119 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona 4th State House District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Arizona 4th State House District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 5 went Republican.
