Florida 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2000–2024 · 7 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
53.4%
51,829 votes · D+7.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 50.3%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
55.9%
38,405 votes · R+12.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · 52.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
51,829votes
53.4% of the vote · D+7.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 46,046 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
44,569votes
48.7% of the vote · D+1.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 44,236 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+3.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+7.8 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +3.1 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+10.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+12.5 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · +8.3 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RDave SmithState House · 38
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin of just 1.6 points Democratic, this district sits at the competitive edge of Florida's legislative map, making it a consistent target for both parties in state house contests.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 56.6 points in 1916 and a Republican high of 58.5 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.6 points.
A population of 175,442, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,399 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 36 and State House District 39.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Florida 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/12038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Florida 38th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Florida 38th State House District voted Democratic by 1.6 points (D+1.6), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 91,605 votes cast, 46,046 went Democratic and 44,569 went Republican.
When did Florida 38th State House District last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Florida 38th State House District voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Florida 38th State House District?
Florida 38th State House District has a population of 175,442 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Florida 38th State House District?
Median household income in Florida 38th State House District is $74,399 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Florida 38th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Florida 38th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 12 went Democratic and 16 went Republican.