HarrisDemocratic51.2%10,186TrumpRepublican46.1%9,171OtherAll other candidates2.7%528
D+5.1- Lead
- 1,015
- Total
- 19,885
- vs nation
- D+6.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Massachusetts 51st State House District
Contests in this Place (44 available)
President38 · 1876–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic55.7%11,620TrumpRepublican41.6%8,682OtherAll other candidates2.6%552
D+14.1- Lead
- 2,938
- Total
- 20,854
- vs nation
- D+9.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic48.9%9,691TrumpRepublican41.1%8,160OtherAll other candidates10.0%1,984
D+7.7- Lead
- 1,531
- Total
- 19,835
- vs nation
- D+5.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic57.4%10,558RomneyRepublican40.6%7,470OtherAll other candidates2.1%381
D+16.8- Lead
- 3,088
- Total
- 18,409
- vs nation
- D+12.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic57.1%10,457McCainRepublican40.2%7,372OtherAll other candidates2.7%492
D+16.8- Lead
- 3,085
- Total
- 18,321
- vs nation
- D+9.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic56.4%9,770BushRepublican42.3%7,333OtherAll other candidates1.2%216
D+14.1- Lead
- 2,437
- Total
- 17,319
- vs nation
- D+16.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic53.3%8,614BushRepublican38.3%6,195OtherAll other candidates8.3%1,347
D+15.0- Lead
- 2,419
- Total
- 16,156
- vs nation
- D+14.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic56.1%9,041DoleRepublican31.3%5,047OtherAll other candidates12.5%2,015
D+24.8- Lead
- 3,994
- Total
- 16,103
- vs nation
- D+16.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+5.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 43,2802024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,132 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 20.3 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $64,5172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 70.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+47.5 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 6th Hampden District, MA · twin score 96.2
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
71.0%
11,455 votes · D+42.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · 58.2%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
72.2%
4,863 votes · R+47.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 69.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
11,620votes
55.7% of the vote · D+14.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 11,455 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
10,859votes
60.3% of the vote · R+21.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 10,261 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+23.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+23.2 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · +20.1 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+41.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+47.5 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1912 · +28.4 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
DShirley ArriagaState House · 8th Hampden
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 1 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 99.9%15,066 | 0.1%9 | 15,075 |
Anchored in the Springfield metro area of western Massachusetts, this district posts a modest Democratic lean at the presidential level while reflecting the working-class and Latino demographic shifts reshaping Hampden County's legislative map.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 47.5 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.1 points.
A population of 43,280, a 70% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,517 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 6th Hampden District and 6th Worcester District.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
6th Hampden District
Massachusetts
96.2twin score
elasticityPuerto Rican ancestry% Catholic
6th Worcester District
Massachusetts
88.4twin score
elasticity12-yr trend% Catholic≠ Polish ancestry
12th Hampden District
Massachusetts
87.1twin score
Puerto Rican ancestry% CatholicPolish ancestry≠ 12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Massachusetts 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Massachusetts at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Massachusetts 51st State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Massachusetts 51st State House District voted Democratic by 5.1 points (D+5.1), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 19,885 votes cast, 10,186 went Democratic and 9,171 went Republican.
When did Massachusetts 51st State House District last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Massachusetts 51st State House District voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Massachusetts 51st State House District?
Massachusetts 51st State House District has a population of 43,280 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Massachusetts 51st State House District?
Median household income in Massachusetts 51st State House District is $64,517 — below the national median of $80,734. The Massachusetts state median is $103,960.
What is the political history of Massachusetts 51st State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Massachusetts 51st State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.