HarrisDemocratic16.2%3,021TrumpRepublican82.9%15,416OtherAll other candidates0.9%159
R+66.7- Lead
- 12,395
- Total
- 18,596
- vs nation
- R+65.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Missouri 154th State House District
Contests in this Place (45 available)
President38 · 1876–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic17.3%3,151TrumpRepublican81.4%14,859OtherAll other candidates1.3%245
R+64.1- Lead
- 11,708
- Total
- 18,255
- vs nation
- R+68.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic16.6%2,831TrumpRepublican79.6%13,610OtherAll other candidates3.9%664
R+63.0- Lead
- 10,779
- Total
- 17,105
- vs nation
- R+65.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic26.9%4,313RomneyRepublican70.6%11,306OtherAll other candidates2.4%392
R+43.7- Lead
- 6,993
- Total
- 16,011
- vs nation
- R+47.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic33.8%5,636McCainRepublican64.5%10,760OtherAll other candidates1.8%296
R+30.7- Lead
- 5,124
- Total
- 16,692
- vs nation
- R+38.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic31.3%5,026BushRepublican67.8%10,874OtherAll other candidates0.9%150
R+36.4- Lead
- 5,848
- Total
- 16,050
- vs nation
- R+34.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic33.0%4,558BushRepublican64.0%8,834OtherAll other candidates2.9%401
R+31.0- Lead
- 4,276
- Total
- 13,793
- vs nation
- R+31.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic39.0%5,167DoleRepublican44.3%5,867OtherAll other candidates16.7%2,209
R+5.3- Lead
- 700
- Total
- 13,243
- vs nation
- R+13.8
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+66.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 38,8892024 5-year
- Population density
- 43 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 899 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $50,9552024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 90.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+19.7 in 1880MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 125, MO · twin score 98.5
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 154th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
56.0%
4,692 votes · D+13.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 55.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
82.9%
15,416 votes · R+66.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 81.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
5,636votes
33.8% of the vote · R+30.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 5,395 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
15,416votes
82.9% of the vote · R+66.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 14,859 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+18.4pts D vs U.S.
Place R+6.8 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +17.4 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+68.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+64.1 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +65.2 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RLisa DurnellState House · 154
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+66.7, this district ranks among the most heavily one-sided in the state, reflecting the deep rural consolidation that has reshaped Missouri's legislative map over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.7 points in 1880 and a Republican high of 66.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 66.7 points.
A population of 38,889, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,955 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 125 and State House District 120.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District 125
Missouri
98.5twin score
2016–2024 trajectoryelasticity
State House District 120
Missouri
97.8twin score
2012–2024 trajectory≠ Scottish ancestry
State House District 5
Missouri
97.8twin score
2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Missouri 154th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29154/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Missouri at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Missouri 154th State House District
counties it covers1
Frequently asked questions
How did Missouri 154th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Missouri 154th State House District voted Republican by 66.7 points (R+66.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 18,596 votes cast, 3,021 went Democratic and 15,416 went Republican.
When did Missouri 154th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Missouri 154th State House District voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Missouri 154th State House District?
Missouri 154th State House District has a population of 38,889 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Missouri 154th State House District?
Median household income in Missouri 154th State House District is $50,955 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Missouri 154th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Missouri 154th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.