HarrisDemocratic50.1%20,995TrumpRepublican48.5%20,335OtherAll other candidates1.4%599
D+1.6- Lead
- 660
- Total
- 41,929
- vs nation
- D+3.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Virginia 86th State House District
Contests in this Place (46 available)
President38 · 1876–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic49.8%21,240TrumpRepublican48.1%20,497OtherAll other candidates2.1%907
D+1.7- Lead
- 743
- Total
- 42,644
- vs nation
- R+2.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic44.0%17,506TrumpRepublican49.7%19,754OtherAll other candidates6.3%2,489
R+5.7- Lead
- 2,248
- Total
- 39,749
- vs nation
- R+7.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic47.3%19,295RomneyRepublican50.9%20,773OtherAll other candidates1.7%713
R+3.6- Lead
- 1,478
- Total
- 40,781
- vs nation
- R+7.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic47.0%19,523McCainRepublican51.9%21,563OtherAll other candidates1.0%433
R+4.9- Lead
- 2,040
- Total
- 41,519
- vs nation
- R+12.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic37.5%13,795BushRepublican61.8%22,704OtherAll other candidates0.7%265
R+24.2- Lead
- 8,909
- Total
- 36,764
- vs nation
- R+21.8
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic38.1%12,026BushRepublican59.6%18,818OtherAll other candidates2.3%733
R+21.5- Lead
- 6,792
- Total
- 31,577
- vs nation
- R+22.0
modeled Census-place estimatereview required
ClintonDemocratic38.0%10,837DoleRepublican53.6%15,281OtherAll other candidates8.4%2,395
R+15.6- Lead
- 4,444
- Total
- 28,513
- vs nation
- R+24.1
modeled Census-place estimatereview required
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+1.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,5672024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,848 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 46.3 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $87,1992024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 58.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 23.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+70.2 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+54.8 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 89, VA · twin score 85.9
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 86th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
50.1%
20,995 votes · D+1.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 49.8%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
61.8%
22,704 votes · R+24.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 51.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
21,240votes
49.8% of the vote · D+1.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 20,995 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
22,704votes
61.8% of the vote · R+24.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 21,563 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+3.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+1.6 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −2.7 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+21.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+24.2 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +12.2 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
DVirgil ThorntonState House · 86
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Sitting at the competitive edge of Northern Virginia's suburban sprawl, this district has trended toward single-digit margins as population growth reshapes its electorate. Its 2024 presidential result of D+1.6 places it among the state's most closely watched legislative seats.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 70.2 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 54.8 points in 1972. The 2024 margin was 1.6 points.
A population of 85,567, a 58% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $87,199 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 89 and State House District 75.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District 89
Virginia
85.9twin score
12-yr trend% Catholicpopulation scale
State House District 75
Virginia
85.8twin score
12-yr trendpopulation scale% Black
State House District 147
Georgia
82.7twin score
% Catholic12-yr trend% Black
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Virginia 86th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51086/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Virginia 86th State House District
counties it covers3
Frequently asked questions
How did Virginia 86th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Virginia 86th State House District voted Democratic by 1.6 points (D+1.6), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 41,929 votes cast, 20,995 went Democratic and 20,335 went Republican.
When did Virginia 86th State House District last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Virginia 86th State House District voted Republican was 2016.
How many people live in Virginia 86th State House District?
Virginia 86th State House District has a population of 85,567 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Virginia 86th State House District?
Median household income in Virginia 86th State House District is $87,199 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Virginia 86th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Virginia 86th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 24 went Republican.