state senate districtMissouri 15th State Senate District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+29.3
2008R+18.9
2012R+28.9
2016R+15.3
2020R+3.3
2024R+1.9
net swing · 2004→2024D+27.5R+29.3 → R+1.9
vs. U.S. · 2024R+0.4R+1.9 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 81.5% of 135,722 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
53,084
55,152
2,317
110,553
135,722
81.5%
2020
54,429
58,255
1,714
114,398
136,347†
83.9%
2016
41,912
57,899
4,985
104,796
136,227†
76.9%
2012
35,339
64,580
1,309
101,228
134,341†
75.4%
2008
43,467
63,959
849
108,275
133,211†
81.3%
2004
38,563
70,687
211
109,461
132,081†
82.9%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupMO SD 15MissouriUnited States
German29.2%21.3%12.5%
Irish16.0%11.8%9.4%
English11.9%11.9%9.5%
American7.2%6.8%5.3%
Italian6.0%3.2%4.8%
Polish3.1%1.3%2.2%
French3.1%2.2%1.6%
Scottish2.0%1.8%1.3%
Asian Indian3.8%0.6%1.4%
Chinese2.2%0.4%1.3%
Filipino0.8%0.2%0.9%
Vietnamese0.8%0.2%0.6%
Korean0.6%—0.4%
Pakistani0.4%——
Mexican2.2%3.2%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.2%0.4%1.8%
African American†2.6%10.0%9.9%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
MO SD 15
Missouri
United States
Median age
44.8
39.2
39.1
Age 18–24
8.4%
9.2%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
19.1%
17.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
MO SD 15
Missouri
United States
Median household income
$131,435
$70,702
$84,427
Poverty rate
4.2%
12.6%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
47.4%
32.4%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
MO SD 15
Missouri
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
10.5%
6.7%
22.3%
Spanish
2.6%
2.9%
13.6%
Russian, Polish, or other Slavic
1.5%
0.5%
0.7%
Other Indo-European
1.6%
0.6%
2.0%
Chinese (incl. Mandarin & Cantonese)
1.1%
0.4%
1.1%
Religious landscape
Measure
MO SD 15
Missouri
United States
Catholic
—
12.5%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
24.1%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
51.7%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Missouri 15th State Senate District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−29.3%
2008
−18.9%
2012
−28.9%
2016
−15.3%
2020
−3.3%
2024
−1.9%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
48.0%Harris53,084
49.9%Trump55,152
2.1%
R+1.9
D+1.5
R+0.4
110,553
R
47.6%Biden54,429
50.9%Trump58,255
1.5%
R+3.3
D+11.9
R+7.8
114,398
R
40.0%Clinton41,912
55.2%Trump57,899
4.8%
R+15.3
D+13.6
R+17.3
104,796
R
34.9%Obama35,339
63.8%Romney64,580
1.3%
R+28.9
R+10.0
R+32.7
101,228
R
40.1%Obama43,467
59.1%McCain63,959
0.8%
R+18.9
D+10.4
R+26.2
108,275
R
35.2%Kerry38,563
64.6%Bush70,687
0.2%
R+29.3
—
R+26.9
109,461
current representation
Current officeholders
RDavid GregoryState Senate · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+59.1, this district ranks among the state's most reliably conservative, suggesting a rural or small-town composition where statewide Republican candidates face little structural opposition.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 29.3 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.5 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.9 points.
A population of 186,330, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $131,435 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 24 and State Senate District 11.
Akashic
Political twins — state-senate districts
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Missouri 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/29015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Missouri 15th State Senate District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Missouri 15th State Senate District voted Republican by 1.9 points (R+1.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 110,553 votes cast, 53,084 went Democratic and 55,152 went Republican.
How many people live in Missouri 15th State Senate District?
Missouri 15th State Senate District has a population of 186,330 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Missouri 15th State Senate District?
Median household income in Missouri 15th State Senate District is $131,435 — above the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Missouri 15th State Senate District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Missouri 15th State Senate District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
