† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
1 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupMcMinnville, TNTennesseeUnited States
American18.0%11.3%5.3%
English15.3%13.3%9.5%
Irish8.5%9.3%9.4%
German5.9%9.1%12.5%
Scottish2.0%2.2%1.3%
Italian1.4%2.2%4.8%
Scotch-Irish1.4%1.7%—
French1.0%1.3%1.6%
Mexican8.2%3.8%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.8%0.6%1.8%
Guatemalan0.3%0.6%0.5%
Cuban0.2%0.2%0.7%
African American†2.1%14.3%9.9%
Haitian0.5%—0.3%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
McMinnville, TN
Tennessee
United States
Median age
39.8
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
7.7%
8.9%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
17.9%
17.1%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
McMinnville, TN
Tennessee
United States
Median household income
$55,487
$69,595
$84,427
Poverty rate
15.7%
13.8%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
14.1%
31.3%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
McMinnville, TN
Tennessee
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
7.3%
8.7%
22.3%
Spanish
6.0%
5.3%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.0%
0.7%
2.0%
Religious landscape
Measure
McMinnville, TN
Tennessee
United States
Catholic
1.8%
4.0%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
42.6%
36.6%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
49.3%
44.5%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
McMinnville, TN
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1892
+35.8%
1896
+41.9%
1900
+48.3%
1904
+42.6%
1908
+36.2%
1912
+59.8%
1916
+49.3%
1920
+32.4%
1924
+46.2%
1928
+9.2%
1932
+69.3%
1936
+61.0%
1940
+61.6%
1944
+49.9%
1948
+48.4%
1952
+30.0%
1956
+34.3%
1960
+7.5%
1964
+48.3%
1968
+2.4%
1972
−24.6%
1976
+47.2%
1980
+23.6%
1984
+0.0%
1988
+1.3%
1992
+28.2%
1996
+18.6%
2000
+13.9%
2004
−4.8%
2008
−21.2%
2012
−25.0%
2016
−44.1%
2020
−49.5%
2024
−56.1%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
21.4%Harris3,647
77.5%Trump13,192
0.6%Kennedy102 +4
R+56.1
R+6.6
R+54.6
17,015
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican77.5%13,192
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic21.4%3,647
Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent0.6%102
Jill SteinIndependent0.2%32
Jay J BowmanIndependent0.2%29
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.1%9
Rachele FruitIndependent0.0%4
R
24.5%Biden3,924
74.0%Trump11,850
1.5%
R+49.5
R+5.4
R+54.0
16,009
R
26.0%Clinton3,535
70.1%Trump9,540
3.9%
R+44.1
R+19.1
R+46.2
13,612
R
36.5%Obama4,752
61.5%Romney8,010
1.9%
R+25.0
R+3.9
R+28.9
13,015
R
38.3%Obama5,515
59.5%McCain8,562
2.2%
R+21.2
R+16.3
R+28.4
14,400
R
47.3%Kerry6,808
52.1%Bush7,503
0.6%
R+4.8
R+18.7
R+2.4
14,400
D
56.2%Gore7,378
42.3%Bush5,552
1.5%
D+13.9
R+4.7
D+13.4
13,131
D
54.9%Clinton6,389
36.3%Dole4,226
8.8%
D+18.6
R+9.6
D+10.1
11,633
D
58.2%Clinton7,189
30.0%Bush3,704
11.8%
D+28.2
D+26.9
D+22.6
12,355
D
50.4%Dukakis4,646
49.1%Bush4,529
0.5%
D+1.3
D+1.2
D+9.0
9,218
D
49.7%Mondale4,813
49.6%Reagan4,811
0.7%
D+0.02
R+23.6
D+18.2
9,691
D
60.8%Carter6,021
37.2%Reagan3,680
2.0%
D+23.6
R+23.6
D+33.4
9,904
D
73.1%Carter6,666
25.9%Ford2,364
0.9%
D+47.2
D+71.7
D+45.1
9,115
R
35.9%McGovern2,118
60.5%Nixon3,565
3.6%
R+24.6
R+27.0
R+1.4
5,894
O
26.5%Humphrey2,046
24.1%Nixon1,858
49.4%
Wallace +22.9
R+45.8
D+3.1
7,718
D
74.1%Johnson5,027
25.9%Goldwater1,754
0.0%
D+48.3
D+40.8
D+25.7
6,781
D
53.4%Kennedy3,119
45.9%Nixon2,682
0.7%
D+7.5
R+26.9
D+7.3
5,841
D
66.9%Stevenson4,014
32.6%Eisenhower1,954
0.5%
D+34.3
D+4.3
D+49.7
5,998
D
64.7%Stevenson3,568
34.7%Eisenhower1,912
0.6%
D+30.0
R+18.4
D+40.8
5,513
D
66.5%Truman2,969
18.1%Dewey807
15.4%
D+48.4
R+1.5
D+43.9
4,464
D
74.7%Roosevelt2,560
24.7%Dewey848
0.6%
D+49.9
R+11.6
D+42.4
3,429
D
80.5%Roosevelt2,323
18.9%Willkie546
0.6%
D+61.6
D+0.5
D+51.6
2,887
D
80.3%Roosevelt2,304
19.3%Landon553
0.5%
D+61.0
R+8.2
D+36.7
2,870
D
84.1%Roosevelt2,325
14.8%Hoover410
1.1%
D+69.3
D+60.1
D+51.5
2,765
D
54.4%Smith1,111
45.2%Hoover923
0.4%
D+9.2
R+37.0
D+26.7
2,043
D
72.4%Davis1,356
26.1%Coolidge490
1.5%
D+46.2
D+13.8
D+71.4
1,874
D
65.9%Cox1,986
33.5%Harding1,010
0.5%
D+32.4
R+16.9
D+58.6
3,012
D
74.3%Wilson1,855
25.0%Hughes624
0.8%
D+49.3
R+10.6
D+46.1
2,498
D
74.3%Wilson1,745
14.4%Taft339
11.3%
D+59.8
D+23.6
D+40.3
2,350
D
67.5%Bryan1,573
31.3%Taft729
1.2%
D+36.2
R+6.4
D+45.8
2,330
D
69.8%Parker1,815
27.2%Roosevelt707
3.0%
D+42.6
R+5.6
D+62.3
2,599
D
74.1%Bryan1,926
25.9%McKinley672
0.0%
D+48.3
D+6.3
D+55.8
2,598
D
70.0%Bryan2,101
28.0%McKinley842
2.0%
D+41.9
D+6.2
D+48.0
3,003
D
60.0%Cleveland1,568
24.2%Harrison633
15.8%
D+35.8
—
D+34.1
2,614
Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
22.3%3,648
75.2%12,287
16,329
2020
R
22.8%3,410
73.7%10,998
14,926
2018
R
36.8%4,200
61.5%7,018
11,419
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in McMinnville, TN
Year
Total registered
2016
21,953
2018
21,773
2020
22,911
2022
23,915
2024
25,486
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+218 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +3,944 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Domestic migration in McMinnville, TN in McMinnville, TN: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+36
2012
−167
2013
+55
2014
+59
2015
+264
2016
+174
2017
+242
2018
+124
2019
+413
2021
+558
2022
+510
2023
+566
2024
+892
2025
+218
McMinnville anchors Warren County, a persistently Republican-leaning corner of the Cumberland Plateau where voter registration has trended increasingly toward the GOP over the past decade, even as light industrial growth draws a modestly younger workforce.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 69.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 56.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 6.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 56.1 points.
A population of 42,166, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,487 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Winchester, TN and Lewisburg, TN.
Akashic
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
McMinnville, TN, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/32660/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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In 2024, McMinnville, TN, Tennessee voted Republican by 56.1 points (R+56.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 17,015 votes cast, 3,647 went Democratic and 13,192 went Republican.
When did McMinnville, TN, Tennessee last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which McMinnville, TN, Tennessee voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
McMinnville, TN, Tennessee has a population of 42,166 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
Median household income in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee is $55,487 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 26 went Democratic and 7 went Republican.
