congressional districtCalifornia 51st Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+2.6
2008D+13.8
2012D+12.3
2016D+19.4
2020D+22.9
2024D+18.2
net swing · 2004→2024D+20.8R+2.6 → D+18.2
vs. U.S. · 2024D+19.7D+18.2 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 62.1% of 572,793 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
205,092
140,187
10,399
355,678
572,793
62.1%
2020
234,511
145,508
8,847
388,866
568,121†
68.4%
2016
180,745
118,947
19,127
318,819
537,906†
59.3%
2012
165,073
127,981
7,622
300,676
503,047†
59.8%
2008
175,623
133,014
733
309,370
477,200†
64.8%
2004
139,955
147,477
3,488
290,920
451,354†
64.5%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupCA-51CaliforniaUnited States
German12.1%6.8%12.5%
English10.6%6.3%9.5%
Irish10.4%5.9%9.4%
Italian5.6%3.4%4.8%
American3.3%2.8%5.3%
French2.4%1.3%1.6%
Polish2.1%0.9%2.2%
Scottish2.1%0.9%1.3%
Mexican23.2%32.3%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.6%0.6%1.8%
Guatemalan0.5%1.3%0.5%
Spanish0.4%0.3%—
Spaniard0.3%0.3%—
Salvadoran0.2%2.0%0.7%
Colombian0.2%0.3%0.4%
Cuban0.2%—0.7%
Filipino3.3%3.3%0.9%
Chinese1.4%3.9%1.3%
Asian Indian1.1%2.3%1.4%
Vietnamese1.0%1.7%0.6%
Korean0.5%1.2%0.4%
Japanese0.4%0.6%0.2%
African American†5.1%4.4%9.9%
African0.6%0.3%0.5%
Jamaican0.3%—0.4%
Aztec3.3%0.3%—
Maya2.2%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
CA-51
California
United States
Median age
37.2
37.9
39.1
Age 18–24
9.8%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
15.4%
15.6%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
CA-51
California
United States
Median household income
$107,410
$99,122
$84,427
Poverty rate
10.2%
12.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
43.2%
36.6%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
CA-51
California
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
37.3%
44.4%
22.3%
Spanish
24.1%
28.4%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
2.1%
3.4%
2.0%
Chinese (incl. Mandarin & Cantonese)
1.7%
3.5%
1.1%
Tagalog (incl. Filipino)
2.7%
2.1%
0.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
CA-51
California
United States
Catholic
—
26.2%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
9.0%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.2%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
California 51st Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−2.6%
2008
+13.8%
2012
+12.3%
2016
+19.4%
2020
+22.9%
2024
+18.2%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 17 House races · 17 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
51
D
60.7%198,835
39.3%128,749
327,584
2022
51
D
61.9%144,186
38.1%88,886
233,072
2020
51
D
68.3%165,596
31.7%76,841
242,437
2018
51
D
71.2%109,527
28.8%44,301
153,828
2016
51
D
72.8%145,162
27.2%54,362
199,524
2014
51
D
68.8%56,373
31.2%25,577
81,950
2012
51
D
71.5%113,934
28.5%45,464
159,398
2010
51
D
60.1%86,423
39.9%57,488
143,916
2008
51
D
72.7%148,281
24.2%49,345
203,825
2006
51
D
67.4%78,114
30.2%34,931
115,839
2004
51
D
61.6%111,441
35.1%63,526
180,879
2002
51
D
57.9%59,541
39.3%40,430
102,787
2000
51
R
30.4%81,408
64.3%172,291
267,799
1998
51
R
34.7%71,706
61.0%126,229
206,878
1996
51
R
28.9%66,250
65.1%149,032
229,024
1994
51
R
27.7%57,374
66.9%138,547
206,988
1992
51
R
33.7%85,148
56.1%141,890
252,995
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
D
58.1%197,651
41.9%142,737
340,388
2022
D
61.1%6,621,621
38.9%4,222,029
10,843,650
2018
D
100.0%11,113,364
0.0%0
11,113,364
2016
D
100.0%12,244,170
0.0%0
12,244,170
2012
D
62.5%7,864,624
37.5%4,713,887
12,578,511
2010
D
52.2%5,218,441
42.2%4,217,366
10,000,093
2006
D
59.4%5,076,289
35.0%2,990,822
8,541,150
2004
D
57.7%6,955,728
37.8%4,555,922
12,053,242
2000
D
55.8%5,932,522
36.6%3,886,853
10,623,608
1998
D
53.1%4,410,056
43.0%3,575,078
8,311,905
1994
D
46.7%3,979,152
44.8%3,817,025
8,513,916
1992
D
47.9%5,173,467
43.0%4,644,182
10,799,436
1988
R
44.0%4,287,253
52.8%5,143,409
9,743,547
1986
D
49.3%3,646,672
47.9%3,541,804
7,398,462
1982
R
44.8%3,494,968
51.5%4,022,565
7,805,450
1980
D
56.5%4,704,098
37.1%3,091,671
8,324,012
1976
R
46.9%3,502,862
50.2%3,748,973
7,470,586
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Adam B Schiff · Democrat58.1%197,651
Steve Garvey · Republican41.9%142,737
California's 51st stretches along the Tijuana border crossing, one of the busiest land ports in the world, giving it a heavily Latino electorate and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in federal races.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 22.9 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 2.6 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.2 points.
A population of 757,586, a 51% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $107,410 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 50 and Congressional District 16.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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California 51st Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0651/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did California 51st Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, California 51st Congressional District voted Democratic by 18.2 points (D+18.2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 355,678 votes cast, 205,092 went Democratic and 140,187 went Republican.
When did California 51st Congressional District last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which California 51st Congressional District voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in California 51st Congressional District?
California 51st Congressional District has a population of 757,586 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in California 51st Congressional District?
Median household income in California 51st Congressional District is $107,410 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of California 51st Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in California 51st Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 1 went Republican.
