Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1992–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic49.3%106TrumpRepublican48.8%105OtherAll other candidates1.9%4
D+0.5
Lead
1
Total
215
vs nation
D+1.9
BidenDemocratic51.8%147TrumpRepublican38.7%110OtherAll other candidates9.5%27
D+13.0
Lead
37
Total
284
vs nation
D+8.6
ClintonDemocratic42.4%81TrumpRepublican41.9%80OtherAll other candidates15.7%30
D+0.5
Lead
1
Total
191
vs nation
R+1.6
ObamaDemocratic36.8%74RomneyRepublican60.2%121OtherAll other candidates3.0%6
R+23.4
Lead
47
Total
201
vs nation
R+27.2
ObamaDemocratic48.3%201McCainRepublican50.5%210OtherAll other candidates1.2%5
R+2.2
Lead
9
Total
416
vs nation
R+9.4
KerryDemocratic41.3%179BushRepublican55.2%239OtherAll other candidates3.5%15
R+13.9
Lead
60
Total
433
vs nation
R+11.4
ClintonDemocratic26.5%147DoleRepublican62.1%344OtherAll other candidates11.4%63
R+35.6
Lead
197
Total
554
vs nation
R+44.1
ClintonDemocratic23.7%154BushRepublican53.1%346OtherAll other candidates23.2%151
R+29.5
Lead
192
Total
651
vs nation
R+35.1
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
D+0.5MIT Election Lab
Population
3,4772024 5-year
Population density
155 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
22.4 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$84,1672024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
58.5%2024 5-year
Black
10.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
14.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+13.0 in 2020MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+35.6 in 1996MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
9.1%216 participants ÷ 2,372 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+3.8 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state
-22.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
5.3%–6.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%
8.0%
7.3%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
216
2,372 ± 264
9.1%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
188
2,564 ± 287
7.3%
Audited
E/D
285
2,558 ± 320
11.1%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
175
2,182 ± 266
8.0%
Audited
E/D
198
2,225 ± 176
8.9%
Audited
E/A
201
2,309
8.7%
Derived
—
416
2,268
18.3%
Derived
—
433
2,227 extrapolated
19.4%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Vandenberg AFB, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
51.8%
147 votes · D+13.0
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 49.3%
Republican
Bob Dole1996
62.1%
344 votes · R+35.6
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 60.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
201votes
48.3% of the vote · R+2.2
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 179 votes
Republican
George H. W. Bush1992
346votes
53.1% of the vote · R+29.5
Runner-up · Bob Dole, 1996 · 344 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+8.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+13.0 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +1.9 pts
Republican
Bob Dole1996
+44.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+35.6 · U.S. D+8.5
Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1992 · +35.1 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Vandenberg AFB · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Santa Barbara County, California, the county containing Vandenberg AFB — Vandenberg AFB’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Vandenberg AFB, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Vandenberg AFB CDP is a census-designated place coextensive with the military installation, meaning its small resident population skews heavily toward active-duty personnel and dependents — a demographic profile that sits outside typical California electoral patterns.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 13.0 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 35.6 points in 1996. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 12.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.5 points.
A population of 3,477, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $84,167 describe the city.
In 2024, Vandenberg AFB, California voted a near-tie (D+0.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 215 votes cast, 106 went Democratic and 105 went Republican.
When did Vandenberg AFB, California last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Vandenberg AFB, California voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Vandenberg AFB, California?
Vandenberg AFB, California has a population of 3,477 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Vandenberg AFB, California?
Median household income in Vandenberg AFB, California is $84,167 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Vandenberg AFB, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Vandenberg AFB, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 5 went Republican.
