Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1992–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic29.7%423TrumpRepublican68.6%976OtherAll other candidates1.6%23
R+38.9
Lead
553
Total
1,422
vs nation
R+37.4
BidenDemocratic32.6%444TrumpRepublican65.3%889OtherAll other candidates2.1%29
R+32.7
Lead
445
Total
1,362
vs nation
R+37.1
ClintonDemocratic26.9%338TrumpRepublican65.7%826OtherAll other candidates7.5%94
R+38.8
Lead
488
Total
1,258
vs nation
R+40.9
ObamaDemocratic39.6%490RomneyRepublican57.9%716OtherAll other candidates2.4%30
R+18.3
Lead
226
Total
1,236
vs nation
R+22.1
ObamaDemocratic41.5%504McCainRepublican54.1%656OtherAll other candidates4.4%53
R+12.5
Lead
152
Total
1,213
vs nation
R+19.8
KerryDemocratic40.3%454BushRepublican58.8%663OtherAll other candidates0.9%10
R+18.5
Lead
209
Total
1,127
vs nation
R+16.1
ClintonDemocratic44.5%473DoleRepublican37.7%401OtherAll other candidates17.9%190
D+6.8
Lead
72
Total
1,064
vs nation
R+1.8
ClintonDemocratic34.7%364BushRepublican43.1%452OtherAll other candidates22.2%233
R+8.4
Lead
88
Total
1,049
vs nation
R+13.9
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+38.9MIT Election Lab
Population
2,5192024 5-year
Population density
1,095 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
2.3 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$75,2502024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
88.1%2024 5-year
Black
0.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
5.5%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+6.8 in 1996MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+38.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
74.3%1,438 participants ÷ 1,936 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+20.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+0.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
53.8%–61.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
58.6%
54.1%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,438
1,936 ± 123
74.3%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
1,059
1,956 ± 123
54.1%
Audited
E/A
1,369
1,834 ± 164
74.6%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
1,052
1,795 ± 136
58.6%
Audited
E/A
1,272
1,996 ± 155
63.7%
Audited
E/A
1,236
1,865
66.3%
Derived
—
1,213
1,588
76.4%
Derived
—
1,127
1,311 extrapolated
86.0%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Paynesville, MN · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1996
44.5%
473 votes · D+6.8
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 41.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
68.6%
976 votes · R+38.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · 65.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
504votes
41.5% of the vote · R+12.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 490 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
976votes
68.6% of the vote · R+38.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 889 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1996
−1.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+6.8 · U.S. D+8.5
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · −13.9 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+40.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+38.8 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +37.4 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Paynesville · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Stearns County, Minnesota, the county containing Paynesville — Paynesville’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Paynesville, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Paynesville sits in Stearns County, one of Minnesota's most reliably conservative rural counties, anchored by a tight-knit German Catholic heritage that has historically produced lopsided margins in statewide races.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 6.8 points in 1996 and a Republican high of 38.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 6.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 38.9 points.
A population of 2,519, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,250 describe the city.
In 2024, Paynesville, Minnesota voted Republican by 38.9 points (R+38.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,422 votes cast, 423 went Democratic and 976 went Republican.
When did Paynesville, Minnesota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Paynesville, Minnesota voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Paynesville, Minnesota?
Paynesville, Minnesota has a population of 2,519 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Paynesville, Minnesota?
Median household income in Paynesville, Minnesota is $75,250 — below the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Paynesville, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Paynesville, Minnesota from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 7 went Republican.
