Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
57.3%8,883 participants ÷ 15,495 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+9.9 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state
-9.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
46.7%–47.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%
37.6%
34.1%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
8,883
15,495 ± 508
57.3%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
5,264
15,415 ± 527
34.1%
Audited
E/A
6,840
15,516 ± 464
44.1%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
5,599
14,904 ± 487
37.6%
Audited
E/A
7,080
14,457 ± 447
49.0%
Audited
E/A
6,252
15,105
41.4%
Derived
—
7,023
14,041
50.0%
Derived
—
6,671
12,977 extrapolated
51.4%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Rolla, MO · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
42.5%
2,984 votes · R+12.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 42.3%
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
59.1%
3,696 votes · R+21.5
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 58.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
2,984votes
42.5% of the vote · R+12.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 2,837 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
3,922votes
58.8% of the vote · R+18.6
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 3,865 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
−16.2pts D vs U.S.
Place R+18.6 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −16.7 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+25.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+23.4 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · +25.3 pts
presidential primaries
Nominating contests
Rolla · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Phelps County, Missouri, the county containing Rolla — Rolla’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Rolla, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Home to Missouri S&T, Rolla punches above its size in engineering workforce concentration, yet its Phelps County surroundings have delivered Republican presidential margins above 40 points in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 23.4 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 5.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.2 points.
A population of 20,287, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $46,204 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Murray and Maryville.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Rolla, Missouri voted Republican by 18.2 points (R+18.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 6,628 votes cast, 2,648 went Democratic and 3,851 went Republican.
How many people live in Rolla, Missouri?
Rolla, Missouri has a population of 20,287 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Rolla, Missouri?
Median household income in Rolla, Missouri is $46,204 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Rolla, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Rolla, Missouri from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
