Arlington, Tennessee
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −51.5% |
| 2008 | −42.1% |
| 2012 | −47.0% |
| 2016 | −46.2% |
| 2020 | −35.5% |
| 2024 | −35.8% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 31.6%Harris2,415 | 67.3%Trump5,154 | 1.1% | R+35.8 | R+0.3 | R+34.3 | 7,654 | |
| R | 31.6%Biden2,397 | 67.0%Trump5,087 | 1.4% | R+35.5 | D+10.7 | R+39.9 | 7,587 | |
| R | 24.6%Clinton1,391 | 70.7%Trump4,005 | 4.7% | R+46.2 | D+0.9 | R+48.3 | 5,662 | |
| R | 26.0%Obama1,434 | 73.1%Romney4,028 | 0.9% | R+47.0 | R+4.9 | R+50.9 | 5,514 | |
| R | 28.4%Obama1,287 | 70.6%McCain3,194 | 1.0% | R+42.1 | D+9.3 | R+49.4 | 4,525 | |
| R | 23.8%Kerry1,100 | 75.3%Bush3,477 | 0.9% | R+51.5 | — | R+49.0 | 4,619 |
Arlington has roughly tripled in population since 2000 as families relocated from Shelby County's urban core, making it one of Tennessee's faster-expanding small cities and a case study in how exurban migration can shift local voting patterns.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 51.5 points in 2004. The 2024 margin was 35.8 points.
A population of 15,205, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $135,105 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lake Wylie and Lakeland.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Arlington, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/4701740/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.