Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic40.2%626TrumpRepublican59.3%924OtherAll other candidates0.4%7
R+19.1
Lead
298
Total
1,557
vs nation
R+17.7
BidenDemocratic45.1%704TrumpRepublican54.5%850OtherAll other candidates0.4%7
R+9.4
Lead
146
Total
1,561
vs nation
R+13.8
ClintonDemocratic56.0%760TrumpRepublican40.9%554OtherAll other candidates3.1%42
D+15.2
Lead
206
Total
1,356
vs nation
D+13.1
ObamaDemocratic58.4%627RomneyRepublican40.9%439OtherAll other candidates0.7%8
D+17.5
Lead
188
Total
1,074
vs nation
D+13.6
ObamaDemocratic56.5%668McCainRepublican40.3%477OtherAll other candidates3.2%38
D+16.1
Lead
191
Total
1,183
vs nation
D+8.9
KerryDemocratic55.4%836BushRepublican44.2%668OtherAll other candidates0.4%6
D+11.1
Lead
168
Total
1,510
vs nation
D+13.6
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+19.1MIT Election Lab
Population
3,6642024 5-year
Population density
1,832 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
2 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$70,0672024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
7.3%2024 5-year
Black
0.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
90.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+17.5 in 2012MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+19.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
67.8%1,683 participants ÷ 2,482 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+21.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+2.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
46.0%–49.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
32.7%
36.5%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,683
2,482 ± 304
67.8%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
965
2,645 ± 347
36.5%
Audited
E/D
1,815
3,115 ± 386
58.3%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
1,010
3,088 ± 351
32.7%
Audited
E/D
1,400
2,882 ± 354
48.6%
Audited
E/D
1,074
2,301
46.7%
Derived
—
1,183
2,466
48.0%
Derived
—
1,510
2,631 extrapolated
57.4%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Cotulla, TX · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
58.4%
627 votes · D+17.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 56.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
59.3%
924 votes · R+19.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 54.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
836votes
55.4% of the vote · D+11.1
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 760 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
924votes
59.3% of the vote · R+19.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 850 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+13.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+17.5 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · +13.6 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+17.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+19.1 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +13.8 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Cotulla · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are La Salle County, Texas, the county containing Cotulla — Cotulla’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Cotulla, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Cotulla is roughly 90% Hispanic and has served as a proving ground for statewide candidates courting South Texas voters, with its small but symbolically weighted electorate drawn from a region where energy jobs and border proximity shape political priorities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 17.5 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 19.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 9.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.1 points.
A population of 3,664, a 7% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $70,067 describe the city.
In 2024, Cotulla, Texas voted Republican by 19.1 points (R+19.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,557 votes cast, 626 went Democratic and 924 went Republican.
When did Cotulla, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Cotulla, Texas voted Democratic was 2016.
How many people live in Cotulla, Texas?
Cotulla, Texas has a population of 3,664 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Cotulla, Texas?
Median household income in Cotulla, Texas is $70,067 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Cotulla, Texas?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Cotulla, Texas from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 2 went Republican.
