Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic46.2%811TrumpRepublican52.3%919OtherAll other candidates1.5%27
R+6.1
Lead
108
Total
1,757
vs nation
R+4.7
BidenDemocratic44.8%634TrumpRepublican53.3%754OtherAll other candidates1.9%27
R+8.5
Lead
120
Total
1,415
vs nation
R+12.9
ClintonDemocratic37.2%406TrumpRepublican56.6%617OtherAll other candidates6.1%67
R+19.4
Lead
211
Total
1,090
vs nation
R+21.4
ObamaDemocratic49.3%417RomneyRepublican49.1%415OtherAll other candidates1.7%14
D+0.2
Lead
2
Total
846
vs nation
R+3.6
ObamaDemocratic52.7%463McCainRepublican46.0%404OtherAll other candidates1.3%11
D+6.7
Lead
59
Total
878
vs nation
R+0.6
KerryDemocratic47.1%313BushRepublican52.9%351OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+5.7
Lead
38
Total
664
vs nation
R+3.3
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+6.1MIT Election Lab
Population
2,8622024 5-year
Population density
1,022 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
2.8 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$73,0002024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
59.8%2024 5-year
Black
20.9%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
17.5%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+6.7 in 2008MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+19.4 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2012–20245 cycles · 4 audited
2024 turnout
95.7%1,761 participants ÷ 1,840 CVAP
2016→2018 drop-off
+9.7 ptsHigh-turnout, durable
Drop-off vs state
-2.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
62.0%
55.9%
20122016201820222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,761
1,840 ± 384
95.7%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
1,010
1,806 ± 401
55.9%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
874
1,410 ± 290
62.0%
Audited
E/D
1,098
1,531 ± 299
71.7%
Audited
E/D
846
1,489
56.8%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Lake Caroline, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
52.7%
463 votes · D+6.7
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 49.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2016
56.6%
617 votes · R+19.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 53.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
811votes
46.2% of the vote · R+6.1
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 634 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
919votes
52.3% of the vote · R+6.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 754 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
−0.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+6.7 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · −3.3 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+21.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+19.4 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +12.9 pts
U.S. House elections · 1 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Lake Caroline · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Caroline County, Virginia, the county containing Lake Caroline — Lake Caroline’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Lake Caroline, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Lake Caroline sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 6.7 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 19.4 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.3 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 6.1 points.
A population of 2,862, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,000 describe the city.
In 2024, Lake Caroline, Virginia voted Republican by 6.1 points (R+6.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,757 votes cast, 811 went Democratic and 919 went Republican.
When did Lake Caroline, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lake Caroline, Virginia voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Lake Caroline, Virginia?
Lake Caroline, Virginia has a population of 2,862 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lake Caroline, Virginia?
Median household income in Lake Caroline, Virginia is $73,000 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Lake Caroline, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Lake Caroline, Virginia from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 4 went Republican.
