Caroline County, Virginia
Precinct data
Results by precinct
25 precincts · 17,698 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -202 - SOUTH MADISON202 - SOUTH MADISON | 1,036 | 1,175 | 35 | 2,246 | 46.1% | 52.3% | R+6.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -401 - DAWN401 - DAWN | 1,167 | 1,034 | 25 | 2,226 | 52.4% | 46.5% | D+6.0 |
| Precinct -101 - BOWLING GREEN101 - BOWLING GREEN | 692 | 1,231 | 25 | 1,948 | 35.5% | 63.2% | R+27.7 |
| Precinct -601 - CHILESBURG601 - CHILESBURG | 761 | 840 | 20 | 1,621 | 46.9% | 51.8% | R+4.9 |
| Precinct -302 - WOODFORD302 - WOODFORD | 573 | 955 | 14 | 1,542 | 37.2% | 61.9% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct -501 - WEST MATTAPONI501 - WEST MATTAPONI | 820 | 596 | 19 | 1,435 | 57.1% | 41.5% | D+15.6 |
| Precinct -502 - MILFORD502 - MILFORD | 518 | 733 | 18 | 1,269 | 40.8% | 57.8% | R+16.9 |
| Precinct -602 - LAKE602 - LAKE | 513 | 684 | 26 | 1,223 | 41.9% | 55.9% | R+14.0 |
| Precinct -102 - SPARTA102 - SPARTA | 403 | 787 | 10 | 1,200 | 33.6% | 65.6% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct -201 - NORTH MADISON201 - NORTH MADISON | 659 | 519 | 20 | 1,198 | 55.0% | 43.3% | D+11.7 |
| Precinct -301 - PORT ROYAL301 - PORT ROYAL | 315 | 419 | 12 | 746 | 42.2% | 56.2% | R+13.9 |
| Precinct -402 - CARMEL CHURCH402 - CARMEL CHURCH | 390 | 334 | 3 | 727 | 53.6% | 45.9% | D+7.7 |
| Precinct -303 - WRIGHTS CHAPEL303 - WRIGHTS CHAPEL | 110 | 204 | 3 | 317 | 34.7% | 64.4% | R+29.7 |
| Bowling Green51033000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Carmel Church51033000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Chilesburg51033000601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Dawn51033000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Lake51033000602 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Milford51033000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| North Madison51033000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Port Royal51033000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| South Madison51033000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Sparta51033000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| West Mattaponi51033000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Woodford51033000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −3.8% |
| 1896 | −7.4% |
| 1900 | −3.0% |
| 1904 | +22.3% |
| 1908 | +20.3% |
| 1912 | +51.5% |
| 1916 | +52.3% |
| 1920 | +36.3% |
| 1924 | +57.0% |
| 1928 | +0.1% |
| 1932 | +59.1% |
| 1936 | +61.9% |
| 1940 | +57.4% |
| 1944 | +44.6% |
| 1948 | +25.5% |
| 1952 | +5.3% |
| 1956 | −2.7% |
| 1960 | +26.2% |
| 1964 | +27.7% |
| 1968 | +22.7% |
| 1972 | −6.9% |
| 1976 | +29.5% |
| 1980 | +16.6% |
| 1984 | +2.6% |
| 1988 | +1.9% |
| 1992 | +10.6% |
| 1996 | +14.8% |
| 2000 | +5.3% |
| 2004 | −1.2% |
| 2008 | +12.0% |
| 2012 | +8.2% |
| 2016 | −5.0% |
| 2020 | −4.2% |
| 2024 | −8.8% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 19,597 |
| 2018 | 20,292 |
| 2020 | 21,743 |
| 2022 | 22,757 |
| 2024 | 24,411 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+753 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +4,040 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $64,328 in average income, against $72,167 for residents who stayed — 11% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+4.0 on average — 13 points more Democratic-leaning than Caroline County, VA itself (R+8.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Spotsylvania County, VA297R+8.5
- Stafford County, VA159D+0.8
- Hanover County, VA71R+25.7
- Fredericksburg city, VA65D+31.5
- Henrico County, VA64D+28.7
- Prince William County, VA58D+17.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Spotsylvania County, VA189
- Stafford County, VA77
- Henrico County, VA75
- Hanover County, VA71
- Fredericksburg city, VA47
- Richmond city, VA41
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −130 |
| 2012 | +102 |
| 2013 | +183 |
| 2014 | +275 |
| 2015 | −14 |
| 2016 | +81 |
| 2017 | +263 |
| 2018 | +253 |
| 2019 | −84 |
| 2021 | +506 |
| 2022 | +503 |
| 2023 | +669 |
| 2024 | +680 |
| 2025 | +753 |
Caroline sits between Richmond and Fredericksburg along the I-95 corridor, blending exurban growth with a historically rural population. Its 2024 presidential margin of R+8.8 reflects a pattern of gradual realignment visible across Virginia's outer-ring counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 61.9 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 8.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.8 points.
A population of 32,098, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $87,407 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Hoke County and Pasquotank County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Caroline County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51033/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.