Caroline County, Virginia: Industrial Catholic Metro county. In 2024, voted R+9%. Democratic peak: D+62 in 1936.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+9MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Industrial Catholic MetroAkashic typology
- Population
- 32,0982024 5-year
- Median household income
- $87,4072024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 61.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 23.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+62 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Mason County, WA · similarity 0.94
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Caroline CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Caroline County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −3.8% |
| 1896 | −7.4% |
| 1900 | −3.0% |
| 1904 | +22.3% |
| 1908 | +20.3% |
| 1912 | +51.5% |
| 1916 | +52.3% |
| 1920 | +36.3% |
| 1924 | +57.0% |
| 1928 | +0.1% |
| 1932 | +59.1% |
| 1936 | +61.9% |
| 1940 | +57.4% |
| 1944 | +44.6% |
| 1948 | +25.5% |
| 1952 | +5.3% |
| 1956 | −2.7% |
| 1960 | +26.2% |
| 1964 | +27.7% |
| 1968 | +22.7% |
| 1972 | −6.9% |
| 1976 | +29.5% |
| 1980 | +16.6% |
| 1984 | +2.6% |
| 1988 | +1.9% |
| 1992 | +10.6% |
| 1996 | +14.8% |
| 2000 | +5.3% |
| 2004 | −1.2% |
| 2008 | +12.0% |
| 2012 | +8.2% |
| 2016 | −5.0% |
| 2020 | −4.2% |
| 2024 | −8.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 7,957 | 9,511 | 17,698 | ||
| R | 7,657 | 8,336 | 16,288 | ||
| R | 6,432 | 7,147 | 14,248 | ||
| D | 7,276 | 6,151 | 13,652 | ||
| D | 7,163 | 5,617 | 12,919 | ||
| R | 4,878 | 4,999 | 9,954 | ||
| D | 4,314 | 3,873 | 8,351 | ||
| D | 3,897 | 2,816 | 7,285 | ||
| D | 3,770 | 2,947 | 7,753 | ||
| D | 3,186 | 3,065 | 6,292 | ||
| D | 3,111 | 2,949 | 6,138 | ||
| D | 2,924 | 2,071 | 5,154 | ||
| D | 3,064 | 1,648 | 4,796 | ||
| R | 1,814 | 2,086 | 3,951 | ||
| D | 2,165 | 1,162 | 4,426 | ||
| D | 2,064 | 1,166 | 3,243 | ||
| D | 1,483 | 864 | 2,367 | ||
| R | 853 | 907 | 1,969 | ||
| D | 954 | 858 | 1,825 | ||
| D | 731 | 397 | 1,312 | ||
| D | 1,004 | 383 | 1,391 | ||
| D | 1,136 | 305 | 1,447 | ||
| D | 1,104 | 258 | 1,367 | ||
| D | 1,076 | 270 | 1,364 | ||
| D | 639 | 638 | 1,277 | ||
| D | 840 | 223 | 1,083 | ||
| D | 665 | 308 | 984 | ||
| D | 637 | 198 | 840 | ||
| D | 590 | 144 | 866 | ||
| D | 494 | 326 | 827 | ||
| D | 501 | 317 | 826 | ||
| R | 1,077 | 1,144 | 2,235 | ||
| R | 1,293 | 1,502 | 2,813 | ||
| R | 1,235 | 1,343 | 2,823 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
11.4%
Irish
10.3%
German
9.9%
Italian
5.8%
American
5.6%
French
2.7%
Scottish
2.3%
African American
19.0%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$87,407
Caroline County ranks in the top 10% of US counties.
Caroline County$87,407
Virginia$93,170
United States$80,734
Caroline County ranks in the top 10% of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1818.4%
Working age (18–64)9.4%
Seniors (65+)6.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
92.6%
speak English only
Spanish5.8%
Other Indo-European0.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.7%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 66.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Caroline sits between Richmond and Fredericksburg along the I-95 corridor, blending exurban growth with a historically rural population. Its 2024 presidential margin of R+8.8 reflects a pattern of gradual realignment visible across Virginia's outer-ring counties.
Its margins are typically close. The Democratic margin reached sixty-two points in 1936; the Republican margin reached nine points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved five points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was nine points.
Its demographics sit near national norms: a 62% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $87,407, and a 11% poverty rate. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Mason County and Knox County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Caroline County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51033/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More in Virginia
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Frequently asked questions
How did Caroline County, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Caroline County, Virginia voted Republican by 8.8 points (R+9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 17,698 votes cast, 7,957 went Democratic and 9,511 went Republican.
What is Caroline County, Virginia's political typology?
Akashic places Caroline County, Virginia in the "Industrial Catholic Metro" typology — Mid-size industrial metros with Catholic ethnic roots — among the most competitive, swing-prone ground in the country. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 25 times, Republican 9 times, and other 0 times.
When did Caroline County, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Caroline County, Virginia voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Caroline County, Virginia?
Caroline County, Virginia has a population of 32,098 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Caroline County, Virginia?
Median household income in Caroline County, Virginia is $87,407 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Caroline County, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Caroline County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 25 went Democratic and 9 went Republican. The county's typology — "Industrial Catholic Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.