Warren County, Illinois: Florida Surge county. In 2024, voted R+25%. Republican peak: R+49 in 1928.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+25MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Florida SurgeAkashic typology
- Population
- 16,4472024 5-year
- Median household income
- $67,3852024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 82.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+20 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Shiawassee County, MI · similarity 0.98
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Warren CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Warren County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −8.0% |
| 1896 | −12.9% |
| 1900 | −17.6% |
| 1904 | −34.5% |
| 1908 | −15.8% |
| 1912 | +19.5% |
| 1916 | −16.1% |
| 1920 | −44.8% |
| 1924 | −42.1% |
| 1928 | −48.7% |
| 1932 | +1.0% |
| 1936 | −12.1% |
| 1940 | −22.9% |
| 1944 | −28.6% |
| 1948 | −33.1% |
| 1952 | −45.9% |
| 1956 | −43.3% |
| 1960 | −30.6% |
| 1964 | −5.9% |
| 1968 | −28.5% |
| 1972 | −40.5% |
| 1976 | −20.5% |
| 1980 | −32.1% |
| 1984 | −27.5% |
| 1988 | −11.7% |
| 1992 | +4.0% |
| 1996 | +7.3% |
| 2000 | −4.9% |
| 2004 | −6.3% |
| 2008 | +8.1% |
| 2012 | +5.4% |
| 2016 | −16.5% |
| 2020 | −20.0% |
| 2024 | −25.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 2,711 | 4,579 | 7,447 | ||
| R | 3,090 | 4,676 | 7,924 | ||
| R | 2,987 | 4,275 | 7,807 | ||
| D | 4,044 | 3,618 | 7,818 | ||
| D | 4,286 | 3,637 | 8,029 | ||
| R | 3,938 | 4,474 | 8,457 | ||
| R | 3,524 | 3,899 | 7,631 | ||
| D | 3,500 | 2,974 | 7,250 | ||
| D | 3,661 | 3,325 | 8,446 | ||
| R | 3,617 | 4,584 | 8,254 | ||
| R | 3,318 | 5,846 | 9,193 | ||
| R | 2,756 | 5,667 | 9,071 | ||
| R | 3,808 | 5,822 | 9,826 | ||
| R | 2,969 | 7,021 | 10,008 | ||
| R | 3,085 | 5,877 | 9,795 | ||
| R | 4,670 | 5,258 | 9,931 | ||
| R | 3,835 | 7,221 | 11,066 | ||
| R | 2,996 | 7,580 | 10,582 | ||
| R | 2,973 | 8,020 | 11,004 | ||
| R | 3,367 | 6,738 | 10,179 | ||
| R | 3,926 | 7,085 | 11,050 | ||
| R | 4,878 | 7,790 | 12,735 | ||
| R | 5,409 | 6,919 | 12,465 | ||
| D | 5,610 | 5,498 | 11,258 | ||
| R | 2,681 | 7,915 | 10,753 | ||
| R | 2,440 | 6,912 | 10,623 | ||
| R | 2,236 | 6,309 | 9,090 | ||
| R | 4,498 | 6,294 | 11,145 | ||
| O | 2,080 | 915 | 5,966 | ||
| R | 2,327 | 3,283 | 6,066 | ||
| R | 1,559 | 3,563 | 5,808 | ||
| R | 2,501 | 3,618 | 6,351 | ||
| R | 2,604 | 3,394 | 6,144 | ||
| R | 2,294 | 2,725 | 5,376 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
17.0%
Irish
12.9%
English
9.4%
American
6.5%
Scottish
2.1%
Italian
1.9%
French
1.9%
African American
2.2%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$67,385
Warren County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Warren County$67,385
Illinois$83,390
United States$80,734
Warren County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.6%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1824.8%
Working age (18–64)11.1%
Seniors (65+)14.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
88.0%
speak English only
Spanish7.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.3%
Other Indo-European1.9%
Other languages0.8%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 66.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Warren County's population has declined steadily as agriculture consolidates, leaving a smaller, older, and more reliably Republican electorate. In 2024 the GOP presidential margin reached 25 points, up sharply from the single-digit gaps of two decades ago.
The Democratic margin here once reached twenty points in 1912. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved five points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was twenty-five points.
A population of 16,447, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,385 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Shiawassee County and Juneau County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Warren County, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/17187/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Frequently asked questions
How did Warren County, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Warren County, Illinois voted Republican by 25.1 points (R+25), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,447 votes cast, 2,711 went Democratic and 4,579 went Republican.
What is Warren County, Illinois's political typology?
Akashic places Warren County, Illinois in the "Florida Surge" typology — Florida coastal and retiree counties that moved sharply Republican across the Trump era. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 5 times, Republican 28 times, and other 1 times.
When did Warren County, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Warren County, Illinois voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Warren County, Illinois?
Warren County, Illinois has a population of 16,447 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Warren County, Illinois?
Median household income in Warren County, Illinois is $67,385 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $83,390.
What is the political history of Warren County, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Warren County, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 28 went Republican. The county's typology — "Florida Surge" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.