Adair County, Iowa
Precinct data
Results by precinct
5 precincts · 4,064 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -2NE STUART2NE STUART | 229 | 619 | 19 | 867 | 26.4% | 71.4% | R+45.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -3SW FONTANELLE3SW FONTANELLE | 192 | 660 | 8 | 860 | 22.3% | 76.7% | R+54.4 |
| Precinct -1NW ADAIR1NW ADAIR | 212 | 570 | 11 | 793 | 26.7% | 71.9% | R+45.1 |
| Precinct -4SE ORIENT4SE ORIENT | 222 | 540 | 12 | 774 | 28.7% | 69.8% | R+41.1 |
| Precinct -5GF GREENFIELD5GF GREENFIELD | 231 | 527 | 12 | 770 | 30.0% | 68.4% | R+38.4 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −17.0% |
| 1896 | −4.4% |
| 1900 | −17.6% |
| 1904 | −41.7% |
| 1908 | −24.1% |
| 1912 | −1.6% |
| 1916 | −8.5% |
| 1920 | −49.9% |
| 1924 | −55.8% |
| 1928 | −38.3% |
| 1932 | +6.1% |
| 1936 | −2.9% |
| 1940 | −17.6% |
| 1944 | −19.7% |
| 1948 | −5.6% |
| 1952 | −42.4% |
| 1956 | −18.4% |
| 1960 | −20.2% |
| 1964 | +18.7% |
| 1968 | −26.8% |
| 1972 | −29.3% |
| 1976 | −0.7% |
| 1980 | −29.2% |
| 1984 | −13.8% |
| 1988 | +10.4% |
| 1992 | −1.4% |
| 1996 | +3.7% |
| 2000 | −12.7% |
| 2004 | −13.0% |
| 2008 | −3.4% |
| 2012 | −8.1% |
| 2016 | −34.5% |
| 2020 | −41.2% |
| 2024 | −44.9% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 28.0%887 | 72.0%2,279 | 3,166 |
| 2020 | R | 29.1%1,207 | 67.8%2,809 | 4,141 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 16 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 5,598 | 1,379 | 2,139 | 2,080 | 0 |
| 2010 | 5,645 | 1,299 | 2,194 | 2,151 | 1 |
| 2012 | 5,663 | 1,232 | 2,150 | 2,279 | 2 |
| 2014 | 5,527 | 1,165 | 2,042 | 2,313 | 7 |
| 2016 | 5,316 | 1,100 | 2,004 | 2,196 | 16 |
| 2018 | 5,306 | 1,058 | 2,069 | 2,147 | 32 |
| 2020 | 5,473 | 1,100 | 2,333 | 2,011 | 29 |
| 2022 | 5,438 | 980 | 2,449 | 1,977 | 32 |
| 2024 | 5,419 | 917 | 2,487 | 1,974 | 41 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−46 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −252 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $48,314 in average income, against $70,567 for residents who stayed — 32% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+14.8 on average — 30 points more Democratic-leaning than Adair County, IA itself (R+44.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Guthrie County, IA29R+37.8
- Polk County, IA26D+10.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Polk County, IA25
- Dallas County, IA23
- Union County, IA22
- Guthrie County, IA21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −83 |
| 2012 | −56 |
| 2013 | −32 |
| 2014 | +12 |
| 2015 | −167 |
| 2016 | −100 |
| 2017 | +65 |
| 2018 | +16 |
| 2019 | +71 |
| 2021 | +71 |
| 2022 | −19 |
| 2023 | −38 |
| 2024 | +54 |
| 2025 | −46 |
Adair County's small, aging farming population has shifted decisively toward Republican presidential candidates over the past decade, posting a margin exceeding 44 points in 2024 — among the widest in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 18.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 55.8 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 44.9 points.
A population of 7,460, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,092 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lucas County and Henry County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Adair County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19001/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.