Lucas County, Iowa
Precinct data
Results by precinct
7 precincts · 4,639 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Chariton Ward #2Chariton Ward #2 | 268 | 671 | 29 | 968 | 27.7% | 69.3% | R+41.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Chariton Ward #1Chariton Ward #1 | 282 | 663 | 10 | 955 | 29.5% | 69.4% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct -Lucas PrecinctLucas Precinct | 130 | 471 | 3 | 604 | 21.5% | 78.0% | R+56.5 |
| Precinct -Williamson PrecinctWilliamson Precinct | 142 | 436 | 8 | 586 | 24.2% | 74.4% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -Pin Oak MarshPin Oak Marsh | 123 | 418 | 8 | 549 | 22.4% | 76.1% | R+53.7 |
| Precinct -Russell PrecinctRussell Precinct | 112 | 390 | 5 | 507 | 22.1% | 76.9% | R+54.8 |
| Precinct -Extension PrecinctExtension Precinct | 112 | 351 | 7 | 470 | 23.8% | 74.7% | R+50.9 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −15.7% |
| 1896 | −6.7% |
| 1900 | −19.1% |
| 1904 | −40.2% |
| 1908 | −15.5% |
| 1912 | +1.0% |
| 1916 | −3.9% |
| 1920 | −42.0% |
| 1924 | −39.4% |
| 1928 | −33.3% |
| 1932 | +17.6% |
| 1936 | +4.9% |
| 1940 | −7.7% |
| 1944 | −10.7% |
| 1948 | +0.7% |
| 1952 | −27.4% |
| 1956 | −16.6% |
| 1960 | −19.9% |
| 1964 | +26.1% |
| 1968 | −12.6% |
| 1972 | −23.3% |
| 1976 | +13.5% |
| 1980 | −12.3% |
| 1984 | −4.1% |
| 1988 | +16.0% |
| 1992 | +7.2% |
| 1996 | +13.8% |
| 2000 | −7.6% |
| 2004 | −12.2% |
| 2008 | −6.7% |
| 2012 | −6.2% |
| 2016 | −37.3% |
| 2020 | −43.3% |
| 2024 | −48.0% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 27.2%937 | 72.8%2,513 | 3,450 |
| 2020 | R | 28.7%1,302 | 68.4%3,105 | 4,542 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 14 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 6,402 | 1,887 | 2,185 | 2,328 | 2 |
| 2010 | 6,405 | 1,744 | 2,260 | 2,399 | 2 |
| 2012 | 6,290 | 1,601 | 2,268 | 2,419 | 2 |
| 2014 | 6,064 | 1,465 | 2,338 | 2,257 | 4 |
| 2016 | 6,000 | 1,388 | 2,421 | 2,178 | 13 |
| 2018 | 5,932 | 1,315 | 2,410 | 2,186 | 21 |
| 2020 | 6,065 | 1,345 | 2,659 | 2,025 | 36 |
| 2022 | 6,049 | 1,187 | 2,837 | 1,990 | 35 |
| 2024 | 6,141 | 1,048 | 3,109 | 1,947 | 37 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−10 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −122 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $49,868 in average income, against $64,553 for residents who stayed — 23% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+10.8 on average — 59 points more Democratic-leaning than Lucas County, IA itself (R+48.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Polk County, IA37D+10.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Polk County, IA34
- Warren County, IA27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −48 |
| 2012 | −77 |
| 2013 | −68 |
| 2014 | −52 |
| 2015 | −5 |
| 2016 | −24 |
| 2017 | −21 |
| 2018 | +65 |
| 2019 | −42 |
| 2021 | +105 |
| 2022 | +10 |
| 2023 | +53 |
| 2024 | −8 |
| 2025 | −10 |
Lucas County's small, aging population and deep rural character have pushed its presidential margins steadily rightward over two decades, reaching a 48-point Republican gap in 2024 — among the widest in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 26.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 48.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.0 points.
A population of 8,716, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,793 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Adair County and Hocking County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Lucas County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19117/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.