Clay County, Iowa
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 8,514 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Spencer Ward 4Spencer Ward 4 | 385 | 1,043 | 17 | 1,445 | 26.6% | 72.2% | R+45.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Spencer Ward 5Spencer Ward 5 | 375 | 785 | 10 | 1,170 | 32.1% | 67.1% | R+35.0 |
| Precinct -Spencer Ward 3Spencer Ward 3 | 334 | 710 | 14 | 1,058 | 31.6% | 67.1% | R+35.5 |
| Precinct -Spencer Ward 2Spencer Ward 2 | 326 | 620 | 15 | 961 | 33.9% | 64.5% | R+30.6 |
| Precinct -Spencer Ward 1Spencer Ward 1 | 293 | 600 | 18 | 911 | 32.2% | 65.9% | R+33.7 |
| Precinct -Lincoln/Clay/Lone Tree/RivertonLincoln/Clay/Lone Tree/Riverton | 162 | 586 | 6 | 754 | 21.5% | 77.7% | R+56.2 |
| Precinct -Summit/Meadow/SiouxSummit/Meadow/Sioux | 146 | 471 | 6 | 623 | 23.4% | 75.6% | R+52.2 |
| Precinct -Douglas/PetersonDouglas/Peterson | 91 | 309 | 6 | 406 | 22.4% | 76.1% | R+53.7 |
| Precinct -Waterford/City of EverlyWaterford/City of Everly | 77 | 296 | 3 | 376 | 20.5% | 78.7% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -Lake/FreemanLake/Freeman | 85 | 215 | 1 | 301 | 28.2% | 71.4% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -Logan/Gillett GroveLogan/Gillett Grove | 44 | 221 | 2 | 267 | 16.5% | 82.8% | R+66.3 |
| Precinct -Garfield/HerdlandGarfield/Herdland | 49 | 191 | 2 | 242 | 20.2% | 78.9% | R+58.7 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −36.5% |
| 1896 | −33.2% |
| 1900 | −48.0% |
| 1904 | −60.9% |
| 1908 | −41.5% |
| 1912 | +1.0% |
| 1916 | −13.9% |
| 1920 | −62.1% |
| 1924 | −54.5% |
| 1928 | −31.6% |
| 1932 | +19.9% |
| 1936 | +25.3% |
| 1940 | +8.2% |
| 1944 | +8.7% |
| 1948 | +8.8% |
| 1952 | −46.4% |
| 1956 | −26.1% |
| 1960 | −20.1% |
| 1964 | +21.1% |
| 1968 | −19.5% |
| 1972 | −21.8% |
| 1976 | −9.1% |
| 1980 | −14.8% |
| 1984 | −8.1% |
| 1988 | +6.8% |
| 1992 | +4.0% |
| 1996 | +6.9% |
| 2000 | −9.2% |
| 2004 | −15.7% |
| 2008 | −5.1% |
| 2012 | −18.4% |
| 2016 | −41.7% |
| 2020 | −38.7% |
| 2024 | −43.1% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 28.2%1,795 | 71.8%4,578 | 6,373 |
| 2020 | R | 32.3%2,861 | 64.5%5,716 | 8,859 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 9.1 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 12,628 | 2,992 | 4,734 | 4,900 | 2 |
| 2010 | 12,483 | 2,942 | 4,659 | 4,875 | 7 |
| 2012 | 12,695 | 2,841 | 4,834 | 5,015 | 5 |
| 2014 | 12,182 | 2,655 | 4,780 | 4,735 | 12 |
| 2016 | 12,286 | 2,230 | 6,054 | 3,967 | 35 |
| 2018 | 11,799 | 2,133 | 5,696 | 3,914 | 56 |
| 2020 | 12,061 | 2,340 | 5,888 | 3,748 | 85 |
| 2022 | 11,876 | 2,155 | 5,934 | 3,687 | 100 |
| 2024 | 11,762 | 2,013 | 6,005 | 3,631 | 113 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−292 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −824 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $53,684 in average income, against $85,392 for residents who stayed — 37% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+43.5 on average — about the same lean as Clay County, IA (R+43.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Dickinson County, IA70R+39.9
- O'Brien County, IA26R+60.7
- Buena Vista County, IA21R+33.2
- Palo Alto County, IA21R+44.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Dickinson County, IA42
- Buena Vista County, IA36
- Palo Alto County, IA34
- O'Brien County, IA21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −36 |
| 2012 | −39 |
| 2013 | −142 |
| 2014 | +50 |
| 2015 | +2 |
| 2016 | −196 |
| 2017 | −184 |
| 2018 | −71 |
| 2019 | −133 |
| 2021 | +133 |
| 2022 | +87 |
| 2023 | +25 |
| 2024 | −28 |
| 2025 | −292 |
Clay County's rural agricultural economy and declining population track closely with broader shifts across Iowa's Small Lakes region, where Republican presidential margins have widened from single digits in the early 2000s to more than 40 points by 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 25.3 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 62.1 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 43.1 points.
A population of 16,461, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,428 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Grant County and Kingsbury County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Clay County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19041/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.