Guthrie County, Iowa
Precinct data
Results by precinct
6 precincts · 6,514 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Panora PrecinctPanora Precinct | 436 | 918 | 16 | 1,370 | 31.8% | 67.0% | R+35.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Yale PrecinctYale Precinct | 406 | 898 | 21 | 1,325 | 30.6% | 67.8% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -Stuart PrecinctStuart Precinct | 424 | 848 | 20 | 1,292 | 32.8% | 65.6% | R+32.8 |
| Precinct -Guthrie Center PrecinctGuthrie Center Precinct | 400 | 820 | 18 | 1,238 | 32.3% | 66.2% | R+33.9 |
| Precinct -Casey PrecinctCasey Precinct | 205 | 583 | 14 | 802 | 25.6% | 72.7% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct -Bayard PrecinctBayard Precinct | 103 | 379 | 5 | 487 | 21.1% | 77.8% | R+56.7 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −18.0% |
| 1896 | −6.7% |
| 1900 | −20.8% |
| 1904 | −45.1% |
| 1908 | −24.7% |
| 1912 | +3.2% |
| 1916 | −12.2% |
| 1920 | −52.0% |
| 1924 | −48.4% |
| 1928 | −36.1% |
| 1932 | +7.9% |
| 1936 | −6.6% |
| 1940 | −15.1% |
| 1944 | −16.4% |
| 1948 | +0.0% |
| 1952 | −40.4% |
| 1956 | −17.9% |
| 1960 | −16.5% |
| 1964 | +29.2% |
| 1968 | −22.3% |
| 1972 | −23.2% |
| 1976 | +4.1% |
| 1980 | −24.4% |
| 1984 | −5.0% |
| 1988 | +18.2% |
| 1992 | +5.0% |
| 1996 | +10.1% |
| 2000 | −6.3% |
| 2004 | −11.9% |
| 2008 | −7.7% |
| 2012 | −10.2% |
| 2016 | −32.6% |
| 2020 | −35.9% |
| 2024 | −37.8% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 31.0%1,549 | 69.0%3,448 | 4,997 |
| 2020 | R | 31.6%2,000 | 64.9%4,103 | 6,321 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 13 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 8,148 | 2,247 | 2,952 | 2,945 | 4 |
| 2010 | 8,065 | 2,233 | 2,953 | 2,873 | 6 |
| 2012 | 8,076 | 2,123 | 2,878 | 3,065 | 10 |
| 2014 | 7,928 | 1,888 | 2,844 | 3,172 | 24 |
| 2016 | 8,028 | 1,788 | 2,943 | 3,264 | 33 |
| 2018 | 7,921 | 1,699 | 2,962 | 3,208 | 52 |
| 2020 | 8,265 | 1,853 | 3,301 | 3,052 | 59 |
| 2022 | 8,371 | 1,736 | 3,591 | 2,987 | 57 |
| 2024 | 8,449 | 1,623 | 3,686 | 3,076 | 64 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+133 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +134 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $77,172 in average income, against $95,792 for residents who stayed — 19% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+2.8 on average — 35 points more Democratic-leaning than Guthrie County, IA itself (R+37.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Polk County, IA72D+10.8
- Dallas County, IA54R+4.7
- Adair County, IA21R+44.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Polk County, IA58
- Dallas County, IA51
- Adair County, IA29
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −52 |
| 2012 | −99 |
| 2013 | −95 |
| 2014 | +25 |
| 2015 | −10 |
| 2016 | −5 |
| 2017 | +19 |
| 2018 | +64 |
| 2019 | −30 |
| 2021 | +20 |
| 2022 | +121 |
| 2023 | +66 |
| 2024 | −23 |
| 2025 | +133 |
Guthrie County's small-town and agricultural landscape has tracked a steady rightward shift over the past decade, with its 11,000-plus residents delivering one of Iowa's wider presidential margins in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 29.2 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 52.0 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 37.8 points.
A population of 10,688, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $77,711 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Benton County and Monona County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Guthrie County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19077/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.