Hardin County, Iowa: Heartland Swing county. In 2024, voted R+38%. Republican peak: R+70 in 1920.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+38MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Heartland SwingAkashic typology
- Population
- 16,6392024 5-year
- Median household income
- $65,0692024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+18 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+70 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Wright County, IA · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Hardin CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Hardin County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −25.5% |
| 1896 | −38.4% |
| 1900 | −48.0% |
| 1904 | −62.7% |
| 1908 | −43.2% |
| 1912 | +7.6% |
| 1916 | −37.6% |
| 1920 | −70.4% |
| 1924 | −51.5% |
| 1928 | −41.2% |
| 1932 | +16.2% |
| 1936 | +11.3% |
| 1940 | −8.8% |
| 1944 | −11.9% |
| 1948 | −6.0% |
| 1952 | −42.0% |
| 1956 | −27.5% |
| 1960 | −24.7% |
| 1964 | +17.5% |
| 1968 | −22.8% |
| 1972 | −24.6% |
| 1976 | −2.2% |
| 1980 | −15.8% |
| 1984 | −7.4% |
| 1988 | +13.7% |
| 1992 | +2.2% |
| 1996 | +6.6% |
| 2000 | −8.9% |
| 2004 | −9.6% |
| 2008 | +0.9% |
| 2012 | −6.7% |
| 2016 | −28.6% |
| 2020 | −32.0% |
| 2024 | −38.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 2,553 | 5,790 | 8,460 | ||
| R | 2,976 | 5,850 | 8,989 | ||
| R | 2,787 | 5,254 | 8,639 | ||
| R | 4,075 | 4,670 | 8,898 | ||
| D | 4,393 | 4,315 | 8,859 | ||
| R | 4,015 | 4,875 | 8,949 | ||
| R | 3,734 | 4,486 | 8,435 | ||
| D | 4,053 | 3,505 | 8,324 | ||
| D | 3,792 | 3,590 | 8,979 | ||
| D | 5,088 | 3,856 | 9,001 | ||
| R | 4,477 | 5,195 | 9,732 | ||
| R | 3,757 | 5,329 | 9,920 | ||
| R | 4,479 | 4,682 | 9,328 | ||
| R | 3,516 | 5,869 | 9,556 | ||
| R | 3,227 | 5,308 | 9,134 | ||
| D | 5,459 | 3,828 | 9,304 | ||
| R | 3,888 | 6,438 | 10,330 | ||
| R | 3,775 | 6,642 | 10,432 | ||
| R | 3,205 | 7,880 | 11,132 | ||
| R | 4,023 | 4,553 | 8,854 | ||
| R | 3,975 | 5,059 | 9,094 | ||
| R | 4,764 | 5,692 | 10,491 | ||
| D | 5,429 | 4,306 | 9,933 | ||
| D | 5,022 | 3,523 | 9,246 | ||
| R | 2,373 | 5,731 | 8,150 | ||
| R | 634 | 4,714 | 7,921 | ||
| R | 1,076 | 6,646 | 7,915 | ||
| R | 1,481 | 3,335 | 4,925 | ||
| O | 1,072 | 732 | 4,454 | ||
| R | 1,187 | 3,123 | 4,477 | ||
| R | 749 | 3,643 | 4,615 | ||
| R | 1,268 | 3,741 | 5,151 | ||
| R | 1,568 | 3,575 | 5,222 | ||
| R | 1,549 | 2,665 | 4,369 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
39.8%
Irish
9.1%
English
9.0%
American
5.6%
Scottish
2.6%
French
1.7%
Italian
0.7%
African American
0.9%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 45.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$65,069
Hardin County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Hardin County$65,069
Iowa$75,059
United States$80,734
Hardin County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
9.7%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1810.6%
Working age (18–64)9.7%
Seniors (65+)8.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
94.8%
speak English only
Spanish3.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.7%
Other Indo-European0.3%
Other languages0.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 50.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Hardin County's presidential margins have widened steadily over the past three cycles, reaching R+38 in 2024 — a shift driven by a largely rural, agriculture-dependent population with one of the state's lower population densities.
The Democratic margin here peaked at eighteen points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved six points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was thirty-eight points.
A population of 16,639, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,069 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Wright County and Hamilton County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Hardin County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19083/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More heartland swing counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Hardin County, Iowa vote in 2024?
In 2024, Hardin County, Iowa voted Republican by 38.3 points (R+38), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,460 votes cast, 2,553 went Democratic and 5,790 went Republican.
What is Hardin County, Iowa's political typology?
Akashic places Hardin County, Iowa in the "Heartland Swing" typology — Industrial Midwest swing counties drifting steadily toward the Republican Party. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 7 times, Republican 26 times, and other 1 times.
When did Hardin County, Iowa last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Hardin County, Iowa voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Hardin County, Iowa?
Hardin County, Iowa has a population of 16,639 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hardin County, Iowa?
Median household income in Hardin County, Iowa is $65,069 — below the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.
What is the political history of Hardin County, Iowa?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Hardin County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 26 went Republican. The county's typology — "Heartland Swing" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.