Shelby County, Iowa
Precinct data
Results by precinct
11 precincts · 6,486 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -GROVE-UNION-WASHINGTON-WESTPHALIAGROVE-UNION-WASHINGTON-WESTPHALIA | 244 | 818 | 14 | 1,076 | 22.7% | 76.0% | R+53.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -HARLAN - WARD 2HARLAN - WARD 2 | 246 | 478 | 4 | 728 | 33.8% | 65.7% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct -HARLAN - WARD 3HARLAN - WARD 3 | 240 | 452 | 8 | 700 | 34.3% | 64.6% | R+30.3 |
| Precinct -FAIRVIEW-SHELBYFAIRVIEW-SHELBY | 195 | 473 | 7 | 675 | 28.9% | 70.1% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct -CLAY-MONROECLAY-MONROE | 186 | 419 | 10 | 615 | 30.2% | 68.1% | R+37.9 |
| Precinct -HARLAN - WARD 4HARLAN - WARD 4 | 167 | 394 | 3 | 564 | 29.6% | 69.9% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -HARLAN - WARD 1HARLAN - WARD 1 | 154 | 379 | 14 | 547 | 28.2% | 69.3% | R+41.1 |
| Precinct -CASS-LINCOLNCASS-LINCOLN | 110 | 368 | 9 | 487 | 22.6% | 75.6% | R+53.0 |
| Precinct -CENTER-JACKSONCENTER-JACKSON | 120 | 330 | 3 | 453 | 26.5% | 72.8% | R+46.4 |
| Precinct -GREELEY-JEFFERSONGREELEY-JEFFERSON | 93 | 318 | 1 | 412 | 22.6% | 77.2% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct -DOUGLAS-POLKDOUGLAS-POLK | 56 | 171 | 2 | 229 | 24.5% | 74.7% | R+50.2 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +5.7% |
| 1896 | +3.7% |
| 1900 | −4.1% |
| 1904 | −18.1% |
| 1908 | −1.0% |
| 1912 | +25.1% |
| 1916 | +4.1% |
| 1920 | −41.8% |
| 1924 | −14.1% |
| 1928 | +2.0% |
| 1932 | +32.7% |
| 1936 | +9.4% |
| 1940 | −9.5% |
| 1944 | −12.9% |
| 1948 | +2.9% |
| 1952 | −29.9% |
| 1956 | −14.4% |
| 1960 | −10.2% |
| 1964 | +17.1% |
| 1968 | −23.0% |
| 1972 | −27.8% |
| 1976 | −7.2% |
| 1980 | −34.8% |
| 1984 | −29.2% |
| 1988 | −3.6% |
| 1992 | −10.9% |
| 1996 | −14.8% |
| 2000 | −24.6% |
| 2004 | −28.5% |
| 2008 | −9.7% |
| 2012 | −22.2% |
| 2016 | −41.9% |
| 2020 | −40.3% |
| 2024 | −42.9% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 26.3%1,213 | 73.7%3,401 | 4,614 |
| 2020 | R | 29.7%1,989 | 67.1%4,489 | 6,691 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 8.6 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 9,484 | 2,672 | 3,268 | 3,542 | 2 |
| 2010 | 9,591 | 2,546 | 3,392 | 3,651 | 2 |
| 2012 | 9,234 | 2,201 | 3,844 | 3,183 | 6 |
| 2014 | 9,096 | 2,051 | 3,831 | 3,205 | 9 |
| 2016 | 8,271 | 1,852 | 3,707 | 2,692 | 20 |
| 2018 | 8,368 | 1,813 | 3,719 | 2,800 | 36 |
| 2020 | 8,696 | 1,935 | 4,146 | 2,566 | 49 |
| 2022 | 8,726 | 1,744 | 4,398 | 2,531 | 53 |
| 2024 | 8,685 | 1,561 | 4,538 | 2,516 | 70 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−41 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −430 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $47,027 in average income, against $86,132 for residents who stayed — 45% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+20.7 on average — 22 points more Democratic-leaning than Shelby County, IA itself (R+42.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Pottawattamie County, IA66R+19.9
- Douglas County, NE29D+10.1
- Harrison County, IA25R+41.7
- Audubon County, IA24R+38.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Pottawattamie County, IA50
- Douglas County, NE32
- Crawford County, IA20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −145 |
| 2012 | +32 |
| 2013 | −144 |
| 2014 | +8 |
| 2015 | −52 |
| 2016 | −92 |
| 2017 | −33 |
| 2018 | +18 |
| 2019 | −81 |
| 2021 | +100 |
| 2022 | −65 |
| 2023 | +66 |
| 2024 | −1 |
| 2025 | −41 |
Shelby County's 2024 presidential margin of R+42.9 reflects a broader rural Iowa realignment; its small, agriculture-rooted population has shifted decisively toward Republican candidates across multiple election cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.7 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 42.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 42.9 points.
A population of 11,778, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,738 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Dubois County and Spink County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Shelby County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19165/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.