HarrisDemocratic17.4%577TrumpRepublican80.7%2,677OliverNonpartisan0.8%28
R+63.3- Lead
- 2,100
- Total
- 3,319
- vs nation
- R+61.8
- Turnout
- 74.5%
Akashiccounty
Clay County, NE
Contests in this Place (88 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 74.5% of 4,535 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic17.7%632TrumpRepublican79.8%2,848JorgensenLibertarian2.2%78
R+62.1- Lead
- 2,216
- Total
- 3,570
- vs nation
- R+66.5
- Turnout
- 78.6%
ClintonDemocratic15.6%477TrumpRepublican79.0%2,422JohnsonLibertarian3.8%116
R+63.5- Lead
- 1,945
- Total
- 3,065
- vs nation
- R+65.5
- Turnout
- 68.1%
ObamaDemocratic22.6%667RomneyRepublican75.7%2,232GrayLibertarian1.1%31
R+53.1- Lead
- 1,565
- Total
- 2,947
- vs nation
- R+57.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic25.7%780McCainRepublican71.8%2,177OtherAll other candidates2.5%76
R+46.1- Lead
- 1,397
- Total
- 3,033
- vs nation
- R+53.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic22.3%743BushRepublican76.2%2,543OtherAll other candidates1.5%51
R+53.9- Lead
- 1,800
- Total
- 3,337
- vs nation
- R+51.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic24.1%774BushRepublican72.3%2,326NaderGreen2.7%86
R+48.3- Lead
- 1,552
- Total
- 3,215
- vs nation
- R+48.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic26.6%880DoleRepublican59.9%1,982PerotReform12.8%425
R+33.3- Lead
- 1,102
- Total
- 3,311
- vs nation
- R+41.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+63.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 6,0952024 5-year
- Population density
- 11 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 572 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $78,9862024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+31.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+63.5 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Perkins County, NE · twin score 95.8
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 74.5%3,379 participants ÷ 4,535 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -7.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 60.5%–64.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,379 | 4,535 ± 56 | 74.5% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 2,875 | 4,453 ± 67 | 64.6% | Audited | A/A |
| 3,608 | 4,590 ± 63 | 78.6% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 2,801 | 4,586 ± 53 | 61.1% | Audited | A/A |
| 3,128 | 4,596 ± 53 | 68.1% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2,947 | 4,729 | 62.3% | Derived | — | |
| 3,033 | 4,674 | 64.9% | Derived | — | |
| 3,337 | 4,619 extrapolated | 72.2% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Clay County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Clay County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Larry Marvin0—
Lynne Walz0—
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 11 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
11 precincts · 3,310 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -SUTTON 1STSUTTON 1ST | 62 | 356 | 4 | 422 | 14.7% | 84.4% | R+69.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -CLAY CENTER CITYCLAY CENTER CITY | 81 | 336 | 4 | 421 | 19.2% | 79.8% | R+60.6 |
| Precinct -HARVARD CONSHARVARD CONS | 104 | 292 | 15 | 411 | 25.3% | 71.0% | R+45.7 |
| Precinct -SUTTON 2NDSUTTON 2ND | 66 | 285 | 4 | 355 | 18.6% | 80.3% | R+61.7 |
| Precinct -EDGAR CONSEDGAR CONS | 59 | 273 | 11 | 343 | 17.2% | 79.6% | R+62.4 |
| Precinct -SUTTON TWPSSUTTON TWPS | 28 | 255 | 4 | 287 | 9.8% | 88.9% | R+79.1 |
| Precinct -LEICESTER-INLANDLEICESTER-INLAND | 51 | 185 | 3 | 239 | 21.3% | 77.4% | R+56.1 |
| Precinct -LLLMLLLM | 41 | 184 | 4 | 229 | 17.9% | 80.3% | R+62.4 |
| Precinct -FAIRFIELD 2ND-SPRINGRANCH CONSFAIRFIELD 2ND-SPRINGRANCH CONS | 21 | 186 | 3 | 210 | 10.0% | 88.6% | R+78.6 |
| Precinct -FAIRFIELD 1STFAIRFIELD 1ST | 33 | 165 | 2 | 200 | 16.5% | 82.5% | R+66.0 |
| Precinct -GLENVILGLENVIL | 31 | 160 | 2 | 193 | 16.1% | 82.9% | R+66.8 |
presidential history
Party record book
Clay County, NE · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
60.8%
3,878 votes · D+24.4
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1916 · 51.7%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
80.7%
2,677 votes · R+63.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 79.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
3,878votes
60.8% of the vote · D+24.4
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 2,932 votes
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
4,105votes
69.3% of the vote · R+39.5
Runner-up · Wendell Willkie, 1940 · 3,576 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1912
+11.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+31.1 · U.S. D+19.5
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1908 · +10.8 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+66.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+62.1 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +65.5 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
ODave MurmanState Senate · 38
Seats representing Clay County, NE. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 0 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+59.9
Presidential vote · 2024R+63.3
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 3.3 points more Republican than the rolls.
4,127 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+33 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −407 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $44,721 in average income, against $89,616 for residents who stayed — 50% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+41.5 on average — 22 points more Democratic-leaning than Clay County, NE itself (R+63.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Adams County, NE51R+41.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Adams County, NE54
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −77 |
| 2012 | −71 |
| 2013 | −32 |
| 2014 | −53 |
| 2015 | −36 |
| 2016 | −169 |
| 2017 | +38 |
| 2018 | −6 |
| 2019 | −8 |
| 2021 | −32 |
| 2022 | −9 |
| 2023 | +70 |
| 2024 | −55 |
| 2025 | +33 |
Clay County's population has contracted steadily for decades as agricultural consolidation hollowed out small towns, leaving an older, rural electorate that has voted Republican by widening margins in each of the last four presidential cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 31.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 63.5 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 63.3 points.
A population of 6,095, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $78,986 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Perkins County and Stanton County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Perkins County
Nebraska
95.8twin score
2000–2012 trajectory
Stanton County
Nebraska
94.2twin score
2000–2016 trajectory≠ % unaffiliated
Ellsworth County
Kansas
92.9twin score
2004–2016 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Clay County, Nebraska. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/31035/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Clay County, Nebraska vote in 2024?
In 2024, Clay County, Nebraska voted Republican by 63.3 points (R+63.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,319 votes cast, 577 went Democratic and 2,677 went Republican.
When did Clay County, Nebraska last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Clay County, Nebraska voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Clay County, Nebraska?
Clay County, Nebraska has a population of 6,095 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Clay County, Nebraska?
Median household income in Clay County, Nebraska is $78,986 — below the national median of $80,734. The Nebraska state median is $76,475.
What is the political history of Clay County, Nebraska?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Clay County, Nebraska from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.