Caswell County, North Carolina
Precinct data
Results by precinct
9 precincts · 12,040 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -PELHPELH | 607 | 1,655 | 17 | 2,279 | 26.6% | 72.6% | R+46.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -STONSTON | 502 | 1,314 | 14 | 1,830 | 27.4% | 71.8% | R+44.4 |
| Precinct -LOCULOCU | 796 | 779 | 8 | 1,583 | 50.3% | 49.2% | D+1.1 |
| Precinct -YANCYANC | 752 | 783 | 18 | 1,553 | 48.4% | 50.4% | R+2.0 |
| Precinct -PHPH | 460 | 1,011 | 15 | 1,486 | 31.0% | 68.0% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -MILTMILT | 774 | 686 | 11 | 1,471 | 52.6% | 46.6% | D+6.0 |
| Precinct -ANDEANDE | 177 | 541 | 7 | 725 | 24.4% | 74.6% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -PROVIPROVI | 215 | 408 | 4 | 627 | 34.3% | 65.1% | R+30.8 |
| Precinct -LEASLEAS | 210 | 268 | 8 | 486 | 43.2% | 55.1% | R+11.9 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −21.1% |
| 1896 | −10.6% |
| 1900 | +2.5% |
| 1904 | +62.6% |
| 1908 | +37.4% |
| 1912 | +61.0% |
| 1916 | +43.0% |
| 1920 | +42.1% |
| 1924 | +39.3% |
| 1928 | +11.1% |
| 1932 | +83.1% |
| 1936 | +84.7% |
| 1940 | +73.9% |
| 1944 | +59.3% |
| 1948 | +54.2% |
| 1952 | +45.5% |
| 1956 | +34.4% |
| 1960 | +38.0% |
| 1964 | +16.7% |
| 1968 | +18.3% |
| 1972 | −21.2% |
| 1976 | +35.5% |
| 1980 | +23.8% |
| 1984 | +2.0% |
| 1988 | +11.9% |
| 1992 | +23.1% |
| 1996 | +12.3% |
| 2000 | −2.1% |
| 2004 | −3.5% |
| 2008 | +3.1% |
| 2012 | −2.2% |
| 2016 | −11.1% |
| 2020 | −18.5% |
| 2024 | −24.5% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 38.5%3,121 | 60.0%4,867 | 8,115 |
| 2020 | R | 41.1%4,916 | 55.5%6,643 | 11,961 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Caswell County, NC registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 32-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 14,907 | 9,381 | 3,019 | 2,499 | 8 |
| 2012 | 16,025 | 9,288 | 3,457 | 3,262 | 18 |
| 2016 | 15,838 | 8,270 | 3,707 | 3,829 | 32 |
| 2020 | 15,515 | 6,924 | 3,933 | 4,598 | 60 |
| 2022 | 15,404 | 6,320 | 4,130 | 4,897 | 57 |
| 2024 | 15,871 | 5,881 | 4,671 | 5,228 | 91 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+212 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +104 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $47,238 in average income, against $59,239 for residents who stayed — 20% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+3.8 on average — 21 points more Democratic-leaning than Caswell County, NC itself (R+24.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Alamance County, NC154R+8.1
- Rockingham County, NC70R+35.8
- Guilford County, NC59D+21.8
- Danville city, VA41D+21.0
- Person County, NC30R+23.7
- Wake County, NC24D+25.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Rockingham County, NC82
- Alamance County, NC79
- Guilford County, NC43
- Danville city, VA38
- Person County, NC34
- Pittsylvania County, VA31
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −237 |
| 2012 | −358 |
| 2013 | +122 |
| 2014 | −264 |
| 2015 | +50 |
| 2016 | +4 |
| 2017 | −57 |
| 2018 | +77 |
| 2019 | −5 |
| 2021 | +198 |
| 2022 | −113 |
| 2023 | +395 |
| 2024 | +80 |
| 2025 | +212 |
Caswell sits along the Virginia border with a tobacco-farming heritage and a population under 25,000 that has shifted toward double-digit Republican presidential margins in each of the last four cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 84.7 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 24.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.5 points.
A population of 22,404, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $59,755 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Clarendon County and Martin County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Caswell County, North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/37033/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.