Vance County, North Carolina
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 20,092 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -SCRKSCRK | 1,559 | 1,364 | 28 | 2,951 | 52.8% | 46.2% | D+6.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -KITTKITT | 1,101 | 1,617 | 23 | 2,741 | 40.2% | 59.0% | R+18.8 |
| Precinct -WHWH | 1,518 | 1,121 | 40 | 2,679 | 56.7% | 41.8% | D+14.8 |
| Precinct -NHNH | 1,324 | 1,200 | 25 | 2,549 | 51.9% | 47.1% | D+4.9 |
| Precinct -CCCC | 963 | 1,180 | 16 | 2,159 | 44.6% | 54.7% | R+10.1 |
| Precinct -MIDDMIDD | 1,032 | 1,013 | 18 | 2,063 | 50.0% | 49.1% | D+0.9 |
| Precinct -EH1EH1 | 984 | 92 | 12 | 1,088 | 90.4% | 8.5% | D+82.0 |
| Precinct -NH1NH1 | 935 | 120 | 14 | 1,069 | 87.5% | 11.2% | D+76.2 |
| Precinct -SH1SH1 | 804 | 241 | 7 | 1,052 | 76.4% | 22.9% | D+53.5 |
| Precinct -NVNV | 449 | 335 | 1 | 785 | 57.2% | 42.7% | D+14.5 |
| Precinct -HTOPHTOP | 332 | 162 | 0 | 494 | 67.2% | 32.8% | D+34.4 |
| Precinct -SH2SH2 | 291 | 169 | 2 | 462 | 63.0% | 36.6% | D+26.4 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −14.1% |
| 1896 | −8.7% |
| 1900 | +16.3% |
| 1904 | +39.2% |
| 1908 | +27.2% |
| 1912 | +64.5% |
| 1916 | +44.4% |
| 1920 | +50.2% |
| 1924 | +61.6% |
| 1928 | +24.6% |
| 1932 | +84.4% |
| 1936 | +87.0% |
| 1940 | +83.6% |
| 1944 | +77.2% |
| 1948 | +67.6% |
| 1952 | +53.6% |
| 1956 | +43.1% |
| 1960 | +47.8% |
| 1964 | +20.1% |
| 1968 | +14.1% |
| 1972 | −34.7% |
| 1976 | +19.1% |
| 1980 | +12.3% |
| 1984 | −7.5% |
| 1988 | +0.1% |
| 1992 | +14.5% |
| 1996 | +14.9% |
| 2000 | +12.0% |
| 2004 | +12.0% |
| 2008 | +26.6% |
| 2012 | +28.3% |
| 2016 | +24.5% |
| 2020 | +19.2% |
| 2024 | +13.3% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | D | 54.8%7,097 | 43.4%5,620 | 12,961 |
| 2020 | D | 58.8%12,247 | 37.8%7,876 | 20,815 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 22 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 28,344 | 20,778 | 3,960 | 3,599 | 7 |
| 2012 | 30,807 | 21,630 | 4,302 | 4,832 | 43 |
| 2016 | 30,293 | 20,237 | 4,426 | 5,570 | 60 |
| 2020 | 29,699 | 18,340 | 4,885 | 6,364 | 110 |
| 2022 | 28,791 | 16,924 | 4,967 | 6,795 | 105 |
| 2024 | 29,192 | 15,901 | 5,449 | 7,636 | 206 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−60 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,770 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $44,314 in average income, against $54,576 for residents who stayed — 19% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+11.0 on average — 2.3 points more Republican-leaning than Vance County, NC itself (D+13.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Granville County, NC191R+9.4
- Franklin County, NC133R+13.5
- Wake County, NC129D+25.4
- Warren County, NC93D+18.9
- Durham County, NC90D+61.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Granville County, NC156
- Wake County, NC136
- Franklin County, NC135
- Warren County, NC109
- Durham County, NC50
- Guilford County, NC22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −92 |
| 2012 | −347 |
| 2013 | −650 |
| 2014 | −50 |
| 2015 | −157 |
| 2016 | −25 |
| 2017 | −255 |
| 2018 | +250 |
| 2019 | −177 |
| 2021 | −339 |
| 2022 | +58 |
| 2023 | +70 |
| 2024 | +4 |
| 2025 | −60 |
Vance County, anchored by Henderson, has a population that is roughly 40% Black and has voted Democratic in presidential races by consistent double-digit margins, even as rural North Carolina has trended sharply Republican over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 87.0 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 34.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 13.3 points.
A population of 42,322, a 37% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,465 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Dallas County and Edgecombe County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Vance County, North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/37181/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.