HarrisDemocratic12.9%1,432TrumpRepublican86.5%9,630KennedyIndependent0.4%47
R+73.7- Lead
- 8,198
- Total
- 11,130
- vs nation
- R+72.2
- Turnout
- 57.4%
Akashiccounty
Grainger County, TN
Contests in this Place (88 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 57.4% of 19,485 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic14.5%1,467TrumpRepublican84.5%8,565JorgensenLibertarian0.6%61
R+70.0- Lead
- 7,098
- Total
- 10,134
- vs nation
- R+74.5
- Turnout
- 56.2%
ClintonDemocratic14.4%1,154TrumpRepublican82.7%6,626JohnsonLibertarian1.6%130
R+68.3- Lead
- 5,472
- Total
- 8,008
- vs nation
- R+70.4
- Turnout
- 46.2%
ObamaDemocratic23.0%1,668RomneyRepublican75.4%5,470OtherAll other candidates1.6%114
R+52.4- Lead
- 3,802
- Total
- 7,252
- vs nation
- R+56.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic27.5%2,066McCainRepublican70.6%5,297OtherAll other candidates1.9%140
R+43.1- Lead
- 3,231
- Total
- 7,503
- vs nation
- R+50.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic34.1%2,569BushRepublican65.2%4,907OtherAll other candidates0.7%51
R+31.1- Lead
- 2,338
- Total
- 7,527
- vs nation
- R+28.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic38.1%2,361BushRepublican60.5%3,746NaderGreen0.7%46
R+22.4- Lead
- 1,385
- Total
- 6,194
- vs nation
- R+22.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic39.6%2,162DoleRepublican52.7%2,875PerotReform7.0%382
R+13.1- Lead
- 713
- Total
- 5,453
- vs nation
- R+21.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+73.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 24,2662024 5-year
- Population density
- 86 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 281 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $50,5382024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+4.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+73.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Marion County, AL · twin score 96.9
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 57.4%11,184 participants ÷ 19,485 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +26.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- +0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 30.6%–40.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11,184 | 19,485 ± 298 | 57.4% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 5,465 | 18,584 ± 219 | 29.4% | Audited | A/A |
| 10,207 | 18,163 ± 203 | 56.2% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 6,952 | 17,834 ± 145 | 39.0% | Audited | A/A |
| 8,163 | 17,654 ± 125 | 46.2% | Audited | A/A | |
| 7,252 | 17,442 | 41.6% | Derived | — | |
| 7,503 | 17,317 | 43.3% | Derived | — | |
| 7,527 | 17,192 extrapolated | 43.8% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 10 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
10 precincts · 11,130 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -2-2 Grainger High School2-2 Grainger High School | 213 | 1,347 | 8 | 1,568 | 13.6% | 85.9% | R+72.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -3-2 Indian Ridge Comm. Blg.3-2 Indian Ridge Comm. Blg. | 137 | 1,204 | 7 | 1,348 | 10.2% | 89.3% | R+79.2 |
| Precinct -3-1 Blaine City Hall3-1 Blaine City Hall | 199 | 1,106 | 10 | 1,315 | 15.1% | 84.1% | R+69.0 |
| Precinct -5-2 Senior Citizens Center5-2 Senior Citizens Center | 129 | 1,004 | 10 | 1,143 | 11.3% | 87.8% | R+76.6 |
| Precinct -5-1 Bean Station Library5-1 Bean Station Library | 201 | 903 | 4 | 1,108 | 18.1% | 81.5% | R+63.4 |
| Precinct -4-2 Washburn Ele. School4-2 Washburn Ele. School | 109 | 987 | 5 | 1,101 | 9.9% | 89.6% | R+79.7 |
| Precinct -1-2 Old Central Point School1-2 Old Central Point School | 145 | 943 | 6 | 1,094 | 13.3% | 86.2% | R+72.9 |
| Precinct -1-1 Rutledge Middle School1-1 Rutledge Middle School | 113 | 913 | 8 | 1,034 | 10.9% | 88.3% | R+77.4 |
| Precinct -4-1 Thorn Hill Comm. Blg.4-1 Thorn Hill Comm. Blg. | 105 | 656 | 3 | 764 | 13.7% | 85.9% | R+72.1 |
| Precinct -2-1 Bean Station Ele. School2-1 Bean Station Ele. School | 81 | 567 | 7 | 655 | 12.4% | 86.6% | R+74.2 |
presidential history
Party record book
Grainger County, TN · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
42.3%
995 votes · R+14.0
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 41.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
86.5%
9,630 votes · R+73.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 84.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
2,569votes
34.1% of the vote · R+31.1
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · 2,361 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
9,630votes
86.5% of the vote · R+73.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 8,565 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
−13.0pts D vs U.S.
Place R+38.2 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · −15.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+74.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+70.0 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +72.2 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RJessie SealState Senate · 8
RRick EldridgeState House · 10
Seats representing Grainger County, TN. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 1 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 11.5%1,259 | 88.5%9,661 | 10,920 |
| 2020 | R | 13.0%1,247 | 87.0%8,362 | 9,609 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 14,986 |
| 2018 | 13,722 |
| 2020 | 14,559 |
| 2022 | 15,214 |
| 2024 | 16,442 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+742 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +3,782 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $57,584 in average income, against $62,428 for residents who stayed — 8% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+48.7 on average — 25 points more Democratic-leaning than Grainger County, TN itself (R+73.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Knox County, TN150R+19.5
- Hamblen County, TN114R+58.9
- Jefferson County, TN53R+64.2
- Union County, TN49R+71.2
- Hawkins County, TN44R+68.8
- Sevier County, TN34R+61.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Hamblen County, TN116
- Knox County, TN116
- Jefferson County, TN69
- Hawkins County, TN44
- Union County, TN20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +67 |
| 2012 | −56 |
| 2013 | +116 |
| 2014 | +191 |
| 2015 | +48 |
| 2016 | +298 |
| 2017 | +86 |
| 2018 | +85 |
| 2019 | +257 |
| 2021 | +425 |
| 2022 | +521 |
| 2023 | +552 |
| 2024 | +450 |
| 2025 | +742 |
Grainger County, tucked in the Ridge and Valley terrain of northeastern Tennessee, recorded an R+73.7 presidential margin in 2024 — among the widest in the state — reflecting a rural, overwhelmingly white electorate with deep roots in small-scale agriculture.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 4.0 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 73.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 73.7 points.
A population of 24,266, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,538 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Marion County and Cherokee County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Marion County
Alabama
96.9twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory
Cherokee County
Alabama
96.3twin score
2016–2024 trajectoryelasticity
Hawkins County
Tennessee
96.3twin score
elasticity2008–2024 trajectory≠ English ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Grainger County, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/47057/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Grainger County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Grainger County, Tennessee vote in 2024?
In 2024, Grainger County, Tennessee voted Republican by 73.7 points (R+73.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 11,130 votes cast, 1,432 went Democratic and 9,630 went Republican.
How many people live in Grainger County, Tennessee?
Grainger County, Tennessee has a population of 24,266 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Grainger County, Tennessee?
Median household income in Grainger County, Tennessee is $50,538 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of Grainger County, Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Grainger County, Tennessee from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 33 went Republican.