Lancaster County, Virginia
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 7,313 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -501 - PRECINCT 5-1501 - PRECINCT 5-1 | 688 | 933 | 22 | 1,643 | 41.9% | 56.8% | R+14.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -101 - PRECINCT 1-1101 - PRECINCT 1-1 | 552 | 900 | 16 | 1,468 | 37.6% | 61.3% | R+23.7 |
| Precinct -401 - PRECINCT 4-1401 - PRECINCT 4-1 | 768 | 480 | 11 | 1,259 | 61.0% | 38.1% | D+22.9 |
| Precinct -201 - PRECINCT 2-1201 - PRECINCT 2-1 | 719 | 498 | 13 | 1,230 | 58.5% | 40.5% | D+18.0 |
| Precinct -301 - PRECINCT 3-1301 - PRECINCT 3-1 | 455 | 695 | 18 | 1,168 | 39.0% | 59.5% | R+20.5 |
| Precinct -302 - PRECINCT 3-2302 - PRECINCT 3-2 | 173 | 360 | 12 | 545 | 31.7% | 66.1% | R+34.3 |
| Precinct 1-151103000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct 2-151103000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct 3-151103000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct 3-251103000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct 4-151103000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct 5-151103000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +4.6% |
| 1896 | +28.0% |
| 1900 | +31.2% |
| 1904 | +57.1% |
| 1908 | +57.7% |
| 1912 | +68.0% |
| 1916 | +77.2% |
| 1920 | +48.7% |
| 1924 | +71.0% |
| 1928 | −24.6% |
| 1932 | +39.6% |
| 1936 | +36.2% |
| 1940 | +38.0% |
| 1944 | +26.0% |
| 1948 | +8.6% |
| 1952 | −23.8% |
| 1956 | −51.6% |
| 1960 | −19.8% |
| 1964 | −8.2% |
| 1968 | −13.9% |
| 1972 | −42.5% |
| 1976 | −19.6% |
| 1980 | −26.6% |
| 1984 | −36.8% |
| 1988 | −36.3% |
| 1992 | −18.6% |
| 1996 | −17.7% |
| 2000 | −27.0% |
| 2004 | −20.0% |
| 2008 | −5.9% |
| 2012 | −8.7% |
| 2016 | −9.8% |
| 2020 | −4.6% |
| 2024 | −7.0% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 8,641 |
| 2018 | 8,629 |
| 2020 | 8,936 |
| 2022 | 9,232 |
| 2024 | 9,603 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+190 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +1,121 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $132,912 in average income, against $99,239 for residents who stayed — 34% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+21.1 on average — 14 points more Republican-leaning than Lancaster County, VA itself (R+7.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Northumberland County, VA61R+21.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Northumberland County, VA45
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +30 |
| 2012 | −44 |
| 2013 | −31 |
| 2014 | −6 |
| 2015 | +41 |
| 2016 | +33 |
| 2017 | +96 |
| 2018 | +80 |
| 2019 | +48 |
| 2021 | +208 |
| 2022 | +43 |
| 2023 | +196 |
| 2024 | +237 |
| 2025 | +190 |
Lancaster sits at the tip of Virginia's Northern Neck peninsula, where a largely rural, retirement-age population has shifted the county steadily rightward over the past two decades, landing at R+7 in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 77.2 points in 1916 and a Republican high of 51.6 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 7.0 points.
A population of 10,936, a 67% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,713 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Northumberland County and Greene County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Lancaster County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51103/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.