Northumberland County, Virginia
Precinct data
Results by precinct
10 precincts · 8,232 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -501 - 5A501 - 5A | 689 | 1,280 | 23 | 1,992 | 34.6% | 64.3% | R+29.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -401 - 4A401 - 4A | 650 | 1,253 | 23 | 1,926 | 33.7% | 65.1% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -201 - 2A201 - 2A | 534 | 1,007 | 17 | 1,558 | 34.3% | 64.6% | R+30.4 |
| Precinct -101 - 1A101 - 1A | 532 | 913 | 18 | 1,463 | 36.4% | 62.4% | R+26.0 |
| Precinct -301 - 3A301 - 3A | 797 | 485 | 11 | 1,293 | 61.6% | 37.5% | D+24.1 |
| 1A51133000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| 2A51133000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| 3A51133000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| 4A51133000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| 5A51133000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +8.8% |
| 1896 | +2.6% |
| 1900 | +0.1% |
| 1904 | +40.4% |
| 1908 | +37.7% |
| 1912 | +59.0% |
| 1916 | +63.5% |
| 1920 | +41.3% |
| 1924 | +63.0% |
| 1928 | −44.5% |
| 1932 | +43.6% |
| 1936 | +40.8% |
| 1940 | +29.6% |
| 1944 | +13.9% |
| 1948 | −9.2% |
| 1952 | −36.4% |
| 1956 | −40.2% |
| 1960 | −21.8% |
| 1964 | +0.5% |
| 1968 | −10.3% |
| 1972 | −36.3% |
| 1976 | −8.6% |
| 1980 | −24.2% |
| 1984 | −38.0% |
| 1988 | −32.3% |
| 1992 | −15.1% |
| 1996 | −12.9% |
| 2000 | −22.2% |
| 2004 | −20.0% |
| 2008 | −9.8% |
| 2012 | −14.8% |
| 2016 | −19.6% |
| 2020 | −15.8% |
| 2024 | −21.1% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 9,593 |
| 2018 | 9,579 |
| 2020 | 9,926 |
| 2022 | 10,414 |
| 2024 | 10,739 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+267 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +1,768 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $98,569 in average income, against $91,083 for residents who stayed — 8% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+2.9 on average — 18 points more Democratic-leaning than Northumberland County, VA itself (R+21.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Lancaster County, VA45R+7.0
- Richmond County, VA25R+30.2
- Fairfax County, VA23D+34.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Lancaster County, VA61
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +132 |
| 2012 | +38 |
| 2013 | −48 |
| 2014 | +29 |
| 2015 | +50 |
| 2016 | +45 |
| 2017 | +168 |
| 2018 | −28 |
| 2019 | +21 |
| 2021 | +376 |
| 2022 | +358 |
| 2023 | +251 |
| 2024 | +109 |
| 2025 | +267 |
Northumberland sits at the tip of Virginia's Northern Neck peninsula, isolated by the Potomac and Rappahannock rivers. Its small, older, majority-white population has shifted steadily rightward over two decades, producing a 21-point Republican margin in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 63.5 points in 1916 and a Republican high of 44.5 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.1 points.
A population of 12,188, a 68% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,480 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Middlesex County and Pamlico County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Northumberland County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51133/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.