HarrisDemocratic30.8%15,035TrumpRepublican67.6%33,033OtherAll other candidates0.6%272
R+36.8- Lead
- 17,998
- Total
- 48,853
- vs nation
- R+35.4
- Turnout
- 75.8%
Akashiccounty
Rockingham County, VA
Contests in this Place (87 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 75.8% of 64,102 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic28.9%12,644TrumpRepublican69.3%30,349JorgensenLibertarian1.5%653
R+40.4- Lead
- 17,705
- Total
- 43,811
- vs nation
- R+44.9
- Turnout
- 72.3%
ClintonDemocratic25.0%9,366TrumpRepublican69.3%25,990JohnsonLibertarian2.9%1,088
R+44.3- Lead
- 16,624
- Total
- 37,487
- vs nation
- R+46.4
- Turnout
- 64.6%
ObamaDemocratic28.9%10,065RomneyRepublican69.4%24,186OtherAll other candidates1.8%615
R+40.5- Lead
- 14,121
- Total
- 34,866
- vs nation
- R+44.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic31.4%10,453McCainRepublican67.4%22,468OtherAll other candidates1.2%413
R+36.0- Lead
- 12,015
- Total
- 33,334
- vs nation
- R+43.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic24.9%7,273BushRepublican74.4%21,737OtherAll other candidates0.7%206
R+49.5- Lead
- 14,464
- Total
- 29,216
- vs nation
- R+47.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic24.3%5,834BushRepublican72.9%17,482NaderGreen2.2%539
R+48.5- Lead
- 11,648
- Total
- 23,994
- vs nation
- R+49.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic27.0%5,867DoleRepublican64.7%14,035PerotReform6.1%1,318
R+37.6- Lead
- 8,168
- Total
- 21,707
- vs nation
- R+46.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+36.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,6002024 5-year
- Population density
- 101 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 850 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $80,6932024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+25.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Randall County, TX · twin score 87.9
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 75.8%48,581 participants ÷ 64,102 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +22.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- -1.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 53.1%–58.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48,581 | 64,102 ± 593 | 75.8% | Audited | C/A | |
| 2022Mid | 31,458 | 63,417 ± 524 | 49.6% | Audited | A/A |
| 44,184 | 61,151 ± 507 | 72.3% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 31,808 | 59,481 ± 461 | 53.5% | Audited | A/A |
| 37,670 | 58,293 ± 400 | 64.6% | Audited | A/A | |
| 34,866 | 55,856 | 62.4% | Derived | — | |
| 33,334 | 54,259 | 61.4% | Derived | — | |
| 29,216 | 52,662 extrapolated | 55.5% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Rockingham County only. The complete district Class 2 result is shown below for comparison.
Rockingham County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Bert Mizusawa0—
David E. Williams0—
Kim Farington0—
District Class 2 result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 60 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
60 precincts · 48,853 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -305 - MASSANETTA SPRINGS305 - MASSANETTA SPRINGS | 1,442 | 1,476 | 63 | 2,981 | 48.4% | 49.5% | R+1.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -306 - CROSSROADS306 - CROSSROADS | 1,366 | 1,517 | 54 | 2,937 | 46.5% | 51.7% | R+5.1 |
| Precinct -502 - SWIFT RUN502 - SWIFT RUN | 355 | 2,101 | 14 | 2,470 | 14.4% | 85.1% | R+70.7 |
| Precinct -202 - EDOM202 - EDOM | 808 | 1,579 | 47 | 2,434 | 33.2% | 64.9% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct -205 - SILVER LAKE205 - SILVER LAKE | 878 | 1,423 | 56 | 2,357 | 37.3% | 60.4% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct -101 - BROADWAY101 - BROADWAY | 776 | 1,541 | 31 | 2,348 | 33.0% | 65.6% | R+32.6 |
| Precinct -503 - MCGAHEYSVILLE503 - MCGAHEYSVILLE | 679 | 1,628 | 34 | 2,341 | 29.0% | 69.5% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct -404 - NORTH RIVER404 - NORTH RIVER | 821 | 1,279 | 35 | 2,135 | 38.5% | 59.9% | R+21.5 |
| Precinct -406 - EAST BRIDGEWATER406 - EAST BRIDGEWATER | 951 | 1,072 | 42 | 2,065 | 46.1% | 51.9% | R+5.9 |
| Precinct -105 - LACEY SPRING105 - LACEY SPRING | 401 | 1,517 | 33 | 1,951 | 20.6% | 77.8% | R+57.2 |
| Precinct -304 - GROTTOES304 - GROTTOES | 489 | 1,342 | 28 | 1,859 | 26.3% | 72.2% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct -501 - ELKTON501 - ELKTON | 513 | 1,312 | 30 | 1,855 | 27.7% | 70.7% | R+43.1 |
| Precinct -106 - LONE PINE106 - LONE PINE | 415 | 1,378 | 22 | 1,815 | 22.9% | 75.9% | R+53.1 |
| Precinct -505 - STONY RUN505 - STONY RUN | 779 | 972 | 29 | 1,780 | 43.8% | 54.6% | R+10.8 |
| Precinct -405 - OTTOBINE405 - OTTOBINE | 275 | 1,481 | 17 | 1,773 | 15.5% | 83.5% | R+68.0 |
| Precinct -204 - MT CLINTON204 - MT CLINTON | 457 | 1,147 | 18 | 1,622 | 28.2% | 70.7% | R+42.5 |
| Precinct -402 - MONTEZUMA402 - MONTEZUMA | 390 | 1,179 | 28 | 1,597 | 24.4% | 73.8% | R+49.4 |
| Precinct -201 - SINGERS GLEN201 - SINGERS GLEN | 345 | 1,084 | 23 | 1,452 | 23.8% | 74.7% | R+50.9 |
| Precinct -102 - TIMBERVILLE102 - TIMBERVILLE | 339 | 1,027 | 10 | 1,376 | 24.6% | 74.6% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -401 - WEST BRIDGEWATER401 - WEST BRIDGEWATER | 506 | 813 | 39 | 1,358 | 37.3% | 59.9% | R+22.6 |
| Precinct -103 - FULKS RUN103 - FULKS RUN | 165 | 1,116 | 12 | 1,293 | 12.8% | 86.3% | R+73.5 |
| Precinct -302 - PORT REPUBLIC302 - PORT REPUBLIC | 370 | 858 | 17 | 1,245 | 29.7% | 68.9% | R+39.2 |
| Precinct -504 - SOUTH FORK504 - SOUTH FORK | 201 | 945 | 9 | 1,155 | 17.4% | 81.8% | R+64.4 |
| Precinct -301 - KEEZLETOWN301 - KEEZLETOWN | 324 | 696 | 23 | 1,043 | 31.1% | 66.7% | R+35.7 |
| Precinct -506 - DEEP RUN506 - DEEP RUN | 251 | 760 | 13 | 1,024 | 24.5% | 74.2% | R+49.7 |
| Precinct -203 - DAYTON203 - DAYTON | 348 | 615 | 23 | 986 | 35.3% | 62.4% | R+27.1 |
| Precinct -303 - MELROSE303 - MELROSE | 246 | 650 | 15 | 911 | 27.0% | 71.4% | R+44.3 |
| Precinct -104 - BERGTON104 - BERGTON | 57 | 370 | 16 | 443 | 12.9% | 83.5% | R+70.7 |
| Precinct -403 - MT CRAWFORD403 - MT CRAWFORD | 88 | 155 | 4 | 247 | 35.6% | 62.8% | R+27.1 |
| Bergton51165000104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Broadway51165000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cross Keys51165000306 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Crossroads51165000307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dayton51165000203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| East Bridgewater51165000406 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Edom51165000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elkton51165000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fulks Run51165000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Grottoes51165000304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Keezletown51165000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lacey Spring51165000105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Little North Mountain51165000108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Massanetta Springs51165000305 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McGaheysville51165000503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Melrose51165000303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Montezuma51165000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mt Clinton51165000204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mt Crawford51165000403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| North River51165000404 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ottobine51165000405 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Plains51165000107 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Port Republic51165000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Silver Lake51165000205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Singers Glen51165000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| South Fork51165000504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Stony Run51165000505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Swift Run51165000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Tenth Legion51165000106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Timberville51165000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| West Bridgewater51165000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Rockingham County, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1912
55.2%
1,761 votes · D+25.8
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1916 · 54.8%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
77.3%
19,920 votes · R+56.6
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 75.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
15,035votes
30.8% of the vote · R+36.8
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 12,644 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
33,033votes
67.6% of the vote · R+36.8
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 30,349 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+26.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+1.4 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +24.9 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2000
+49.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+48.5 · U.S. D+0.5
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1968 · +47.7 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RMark ObenshainState Senate · 2
RJustin PenceState House · 33
RTony WiltState House · 34
RChris RunionState House · 35
Seats representing Rockingham County, VA. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 3 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 49,617 |
| 2018 | 50,559 |
| 2020 | 54,711 |
| 2022 | 56,551 |
| 2024 | 59,652 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+866 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +7,681 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,155 in average income, against $82,580 for residents who stayed — 25% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+2.5 on average — 39 points more Democratic-leaning than Rockingham County, VA itself (R+36.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Harrisonburg city, VA799D+25.2
- Augusta County, VA187R+47.3
- Shenandoah County, VA136R+42.1
- Page County, VA93R+53.9
- Staunton city, VA41D+13.3
- Fairfax County, VA32D+34.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Harrisonburg city, VA553
- Augusta County, VA217
- Page County, VA104
- Shenandoah County, VA95
- Staunton city, VA55
- Albemarle County, VA38
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +177 |
| 2012 | +63 |
| 2013 | +122 |
| 2014 | +184 |
| 2015 | +364 |
| 2016 | +618 |
| 2017 | +758 |
| 2018 | +735 |
| 2019 | +568 |
| 2021 | +688 |
| 2022 | +780 |
| 2023 | +979 |
| 2024 | +779 |
| 2025 | +866 |
Rockingham County's heavily rural, agricultural character — anchored by Harrisonburg's edge — produces Republican presidential margins exceeding 37 points, placing it among the most reliably one-sided counties in a otherwise competitive state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 25.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 56.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.6 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.8 points.
A population of 85,600, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,693 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Randall County and Shelby County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Randall County
Texas
87.9twin score
12-yr trend2000–2004 trajectory% Catholic≠ % Latino
Shelby County
Alabama
87.8twin score
2000–2008 trajectory12-yr trend≠ college share
Augusta County
Virginia
86.8twin score
2000–2012 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Rockingham County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51165/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Rockingham County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Rockingham County, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Rockingham County, Virginia voted Republican by 36.8 points (R+36.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 48,853 votes cast, 15,035 went Democratic and 33,033 went Republican.
When did Rockingham County, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Rockingham County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1936.
How many people live in Rockingham County, Virginia?
Rockingham County, Virginia has a population of 85,600 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Rockingham County, Virginia?
Median household income in Rockingham County, Virginia is $80,693 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Rockingham County, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Rockingham County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 25 went Republican.