Warren County, Virginia
Precinct data
Results by precinct
22 precincts · 22,679 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -401 - EAST SHENANDOAH401 - EAST SHENANDOAH | 860 | 2,287 | 71 | 3,218 | 26.7% | 71.1% | R+44.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -102 - OTTERBURN102 - OTTERBURN | 728 | 2,165 | 41 | 2,934 | 24.8% | 73.8% | R+49.0 |
| Precinct -202 - LINDEN202 - LINDEN | 911 | 1,613 | 53 | 2,577 | 35.4% | 62.6% | R+27.2 |
| Precinct -501 - SOUTH RIVER501 - SOUTH RIVER | 914 | 1,602 | 36 | 2,552 | 35.8% | 62.8% | R+27.0 |
| Precinct -302 - RIVERTON302 - RIVERTON | 657 | 1,824 | 25 | 2,506 | 26.2% | 72.8% | R+46.6 |
| Precinct -201 - HAPPY CREEK201 - HAPPY CREEK | 786 | 1,599 | 48 | 2,433 | 32.3% | 65.7% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -301 - NORTH RIVER301 - NORTH RIVER | 641 | 1,214 | 25 | 1,880 | 34.1% | 64.6% | R+30.5 |
| Precinct -101 - FORK TOWN101 - FORK TOWN | 492 | 950 | 23 | 1,465 | 33.6% | 64.8% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -402 - TOWN - WEST SHENANDOAH402 - TOWN - WEST SHENANDOAH | 452 | 960 | 20 | 1,432 | 31.6% | 67.0% | R+35.5 |
| Precinct -502 - BENTONVILLE502 - BENTONVILLE | 243 | 700 | 17 | 960 | 25.3% | 72.9% | R+47.6 |
| Precinct -504 - BROWNTOWN504 - BROWNTOWN | 226 | 486 | 10 | 722 | 31.3% | 67.3% | R+36.0 |
| Bentonville51187000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Browntown51187000504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| East Shenandoah51187000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Fork Town51187000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Happy Creek51187000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Linden51187000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| North River51187000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Otterburn51187000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Riverton51187000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| South River51187000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Town-West Shenandoah51187000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +52.2% |
| 1896 | +33.3% |
| 1900 | +39.1% |
| 1904 | +55.1% |
| 1908 | +45.0% |
| 1912 | +60.7% |
| 1916 | +45.7% |
| 1920 | +41.3% |
| 1924 | +61.8% |
| 1928 | +11.5% |
| 1932 | +49.5% |
| 1936 | +46.6% |
| 1940 | +46.2% |
| 1944 | +15.2% |
| 1948 | +11.1% |
| 1952 | −16.1% |
| 1956 | −20.0% |
| 1960 | +0.2% |
| 1964 | −10.9% |
| 1968 | −14.8% |
| 1972 | −12.3% |
| 1976 | +3.6% |
| 1980 | −18.3% |
| 1984 | −32.3% |
| 1988 | −25.4% |
| 1992 | −7.9% |
| 1996 | −8.7% |
| 2000 | −18.1% |
| 2004 | −23.9% |
| 2008 | −11.7% |
| 2012 | −20.5% |
| 2016 | −36.8% |
| 2020 | −35.3% |
| 2024 | −37.4% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 25,377 |
| 2018 | 26,430 |
| 2020 | 28,726 |
| 2022 | 30,357 |
| 2024 | 32,150 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+115 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +2,882 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $73,716 in average income, against $79,994 for residents who stayed — 8% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+1.0 on average — 36 points more Democratic-leaning than Warren County, VA itself (R+37.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Fairfax County, VA157D+34.7
- Prince William County, VA141D+17.9
- Frederick County, VA128R+28.3
- Shenandoah County, VA112R+42.1
- Fauquier County, VA89R+21.5
- Loudoun County, VA75D+16.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Frederick County, VA191
- Shenandoah County, VA124
- Prince William County, VA63
- Berkeley County, WV48
- Winchester city, VA47
- Fairfax County, VA45
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +17 |
| 2012 | +159 |
| 2013 | +489 |
| 2014 | +1,380 |
| 2015 | −1,591 |
| 2016 | +321 |
| 2017 | +129 |
| 2018 | +546 |
| 2019 | +94 |
| 2021 | +138 |
| 2022 | +390 |
| 2023 | +403 |
| 2024 | +292 |
| 2025 | +115 |
Warren County sits at the northern end of the Shenandoah Valley, and its rural, small-town electorate has delivered Republican presidential margins above 30 points in each of the last three cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 61.8 points in 1924 and a Republican high of 37.4 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 37.4 points.
A population of 41,531, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $84,682 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Berkeley County and Cecil County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Warren County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51187/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.