state house districtCalifornia 15th State House District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004D+24.2
2008D+36.9
2012D+35.5
2016D+38.8
2020D+40.4
2024D+31.8
net swing · 2004→2024D+7.6D+24.2 → D+31.8
vs. U.S. · 2024D+33.3D+31.8 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 63.0% of 346,892 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
140,613
71,080
6,966
218,659
346,892
63.0%
2020
165,764
68,791
5,476
240,031
338,731†
70.9%
2016
124,343
51,646
11,199
187,188
319,815†
58.5%
2012
117,305
54,612
4,749
176,666
298,878†
59.1%
2008
122,000
56,105
563
178,668
285,992†
62.5%
2004
102,643
62,163
2,277
167,083
273,106†
61.2%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupCA HD 15CaliforniaUnited States
German8.8%6.8%12.5%
English8.8%6.3%9.5%
Irish8.0%5.9%9.4%
Italian5.2%3.4%4.8%
American2.4%2.8%5.3%
French1.7%1.3%1.6%
Scottish1.7%0.9%1.3%
Polish1.4%0.9%2.2%
Mexican21.0%32.3%11.3%
Salvadoran3.0%2.0%0.7%
Guatemalan1.3%1.3%0.5%
Nicaraguan1.0%0.3%—
Peruvian0.9%——
Puerto Rican0.8%0.6%1.8%
Spaniard0.8%0.3%—
Spanish0.7%0.3%—
Filipino3.8%3.3%0.9%
Chinese3.4%3.9%1.3%
Asian Indian2.9%2.3%1.4%
Korean0.7%1.2%0.4%
Vietnamese0.6%1.7%0.6%
Japanese0.5%0.6%0.2%
Pakistani0.3%——
Afghan0.3%——
African American†8.7%4.4%9.9%
African0.5%0.3%0.5%
Nigerian0.4%—0.2%
Aztec4.1%0.3%—
Maya2.8%——
Samoan2.8%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
CA HD 15
California
United States
Median age
39.2
37.9
39.1
Age 18–24
8.0%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
17.1%
15.6%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
CA HD 15
California
United States
Median household income
$112,910
$99,122
$84,427
Poverty rate
9.5%
12.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
45.2%
36.6%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
CA HD 15
California
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
37.5%
44.4%
22.3%
Spanish
19.1%
28.4%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
4.7%
3.4%
2.0%
Chinese (incl. Mandarin & Cantonese)
3.5%
3.5%
1.1%
Tagalog (incl. Filipino)
3.1%
2.1%
0.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
CA HD 15
California
United States
Catholic
—
26.2%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
9.0%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.2%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
California 15th State House District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
+24.2%
2008
+36.9%
2012
+35.5%
2016
+38.8%
2020
+40.4%
2024
+31.8%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
D
64.3%Harris140,613
32.5%Trump71,080
3.2%
D+31.8
R+8.6
D+33.3
218,659
D
69.1%Biden165,764
28.7%Trump68,791
2.3%
D+40.4
D+1.6
D+35.9
240,031
D
66.4%Clinton124,343
27.6%Trump51,646
6.0%
D+38.8
D+3.3
D+36.7
187,188
D
66.4%Obama117,305
30.9%Romney54,612
2.7%
D+35.5
R+1.4
D+31.6
176,666
D
68.3%Obama122,000
31.4%McCain56,105
0.3%
D+36.9
D+12.7
D+29.6
178,668
D
61.4%Kerry102,643
37.2%Bush62,163
1.4%
D+24.2
—
D+26.7
167,083
current representation
Current officeholders
DAnamarie Avila FariasState House · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Anchored in the Inland Empire's eastern reaches, AD-15 posts some of the largest Republican presidential margins in California, reflecting a working-class exurban base where cost-of-living pressures and slower demographic shifts diverge sharply from coastal districts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.4 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 8.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.8 points.
A population of 510,272, a 37% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $112,910 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 4 and Assembly District 11.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
California 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/06015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did California 15th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, California 15th State House District voted Democratic by 31.8 points (D+31.8), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 218,659 votes cast, 140,613 went Democratic and 71,080 went Republican.
How many people live in California 15th State House District?
California 15th State House District has a population of 510,272 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in California 15th State House District?
Median household income in California 15th State House District is $112,910 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of California 15th State House District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in California 15th State House District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
