Florida 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2000–2024 · 7 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
35.6%
42,217 votes · R+28.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 35.2%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
69.0%
46,232 votes · R+38.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · 67.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
42,217votes
35.6% of the vote · R+28.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 37,496 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
75,430votes
63.5% of the vote · R+28.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 67,782 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
−26.5pts D vs U.S.
Place R+28.0 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −32.9 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+38.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+34.9 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +38.5 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RDean BlackState House · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Source · Akashic county-allocated estimate from certified county returns, House; not precinct-counted.
Year
Vote lead
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
33.5%33,785
66.5%67,113
100,898
2020
R
38.7%37,693
61.3%59,756
97,449
2018
R
34.9%25,277
65.1%47,054
72,331
Florida 15th State House District sits in the Gulf South and peninsula. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 98.3 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 57.5 points in 1972. The 2024 margin was 28.0 points.
A population of 182,272, a 67% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $87,979 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 99 and State House District 100.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Florida 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/12015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Florida 15th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Florida 15th State House District voted Republican by 28.0 points (R+28.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 118,694 votes cast, 42,217 went Democratic and 75,430 went Republican.
When did Florida 15th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Florida 15th State House District voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Florida 15th State House District?
Florida 15th State House District has a population of 182,272 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Florida 15th State House District?
Median household income in Florida 15th State House District is $87,979 — above the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Florida 15th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Florida 15th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 21 went Republican.