state house districtHawaii 15th State House District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004D+22.7
2008D+53.1
2012D+49.4
2016D+33.3
2020D+30.3
2024D+19.3
net swing · 2004→2024R+3.5D+22.7 → D+19.3
vs. U.S. · 2024D+20.7D+19.3 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 55.1% of 18,369 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
5,926
3,975
227
10,128
18,369
55.1%
2020
7,206
3,794
251
11,251
17,677†
63.6%
2016
5,527
2,533
919
8,979
17,072†
52.6%
2012
6,189
2,027
202
8,418
16,474†
51.1%
2008
6,923
2,036
237
9,196
15,453†
59.5%
2004
5,055
3,157
133
8,345
14,432†
57.8%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupHI HD 15HawaiiUnited States
German9.7%5.8%12.5%
Irish9.0%4.7%9.4%
English8.5%5.1%9.5%
Portuguese7.5%3.2%—
Italian4.4%2.1%4.8%
French2.6%1.2%1.6%
Scottish1.8%—1.3%
American1.7%1.0%5.3%
Filipino11.9%14.3%0.9%
Japanese5.6%11.7%0.2%
Chinese0.3%4.1%1.3%
Puerto Rican3.2%3.3%1.8%
Mexican2.9%3.4%11.3%
Spanish2.4%1.3%—
Spaniard0.6%0.7%—
Salvadoran0.3%—0.7%
Colombian0.2%—0.4%
Peruvian0.2%——
Native Hawaiian10.1%6.1%—
Marshallese0.9%0.6%—
Samoan0.3%0.9%—
Chamorro0.3%0.2%—
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
HI HD 15
Hawaii
United States
Median age
45.3
41
39.1
Age 18–24
6.4%
8.0%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
22.4%
20.5%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
HI HD 15
Hawaii
United States
Median household income
$90,067
$100,389
$84,427
Poverty rate
10.0%
10.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
30.1%
36.2%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
HI HD 15
Hawaii
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
18.3%
24.7%
22.3%
Spanish
1.2%
2.1%
13.6%
Tagalog (incl. Filipino)
4.8%
4.4%
0.6%
Other Asian & Pacific Island
9.0%
11.6%
1.1%
Religious landscape
Measure
HI HD 15
Hawaii
United States
Catholic
—
18.6%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
8.9%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
59.7%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Hawaii 15th State House District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
+22.7%
2008
+53.1%
2012
+49.4%
2016
+33.3%
2020
+30.3%
2024
+19.3%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
D
58.5%Harris5,926
39.2%Trump3,975
2.2%
D+19.3
R+11.1
D+20.7
10,128
D
64.0%Biden7,206
33.7%Trump3,794
2.2%
D+30.3
R+3.0
D+25.9
11,251
D
61.6%Clinton5,527
28.2%Trump2,533
10.2%
D+33.3
R+16.1
D+31.3
8,979
D
73.5%Obama6,189
24.1%Romney2,027
2.4%
D+49.4
R+3.7
D+45.6
8,418
D
75.3%Obama6,923
22.1%McCain2,036
2.6%
D+53.1
D+30.4
D+45.9
9,196
D
60.6%Kerry5,055
37.8%Bush3,157
1.6%
D+22.7
—
D+25.2
8,345
current representation
Current officeholders
DNadine NakamuraState House · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Anchored in urban Honolulu, this compact district posts some of the most consistent Democratic margins in Hawaii's lower chamber, reflecting the dense, multiethnic electorate that defines the city's core precincts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 53.1 points in 2008. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 11.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.3 points.
A population of 24,275, a 39% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $90,067 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 3 and State House District 16.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Hawaii 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/15015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Hawaii 15th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Hawaii 15th State House District voted Democratic by 19.3 points (D+19.3), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 10,128 votes cast, 5,926 went Democratic and 3,975 went Republican.
How many people live in Hawaii 15th State House District?
Hawaii 15th State House District has a population of 24,275 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hawaii 15th State House District?
Median household income in Hawaii 15th State House District is $90,067 — above the national median of $80,734. The Hawaii state median is $100,389.
What is the political history of Hawaii 15th State House District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Hawaii 15th State House District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
