Hawaii 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1960–2024 · 17 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
81.5%
2,926 votes · D+63.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 74.8%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
58.4%
2,533 votes · R+16.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1960 · 54.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
7,206votes
63.9% of the vote · D+30.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 6,854 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
3,975votes
39.2% of the vote · D+19.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 3,794 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+45.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+49.3 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · +44.7 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1960
+9.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+9.4 · U.S. D+0.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · −6.4 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
DNadine NakamuraState House · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Source · Akashic county-allocated estimate from certified county returns, House; not precinct-counted.
Year
Vote lead
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
D
69.9%6,042
30.1%2,602
8,644
2020
D
70.7%6,545
29.3%2,711
9,256
2018
D
81.1%6,484
18.9%1,508
7,992
Anchored in urban Honolulu, this compact district posts some of the most consistent Democratic margins in Hawaii's lower chamber, reflecting the dense, multiethnic electorate that defines the city's core precincts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 63.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 16.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 11.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.3 points.
A population of 24,275, a 39% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $90,067 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 3 and State House District 16.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Hawaii 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/15015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Hawaii 15th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Hawaii 15th State House District voted Democratic by 19.3 points (D+19.3), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 10,128 votes cast, 5,926 went Democratic and 3,975 went Republican.
When did Hawaii 15th State House District last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Hawaii 15th State House District voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Hawaii 15th State House District?
Hawaii 15th State House District has a population of 24,275 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hawaii 15th State House District?
Median household income in Hawaii 15th State House District is $90,067 — above the national median of $80,734. The Hawaii state median is $100,389.
What is the political history of Hawaii 15th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Hawaii 15th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.