state house districtNew York 15th State House District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+2.6
2008D+0.2
2012R+4.8
2016R+3.3
2020D+2.9
2024R+11.2
net swing · 2004→2024R+8.6R+2.6 → R+11.2
vs. U.S. · 2024R+9.7R+11.2 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 75.3% of 95,391 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
31,372
39,394
1,110
71,876
95,391
75.3%
2020
37,928
35,737
1,002
74,667
92,771†
80.5%
2016
30,591
32,744
2,427
65,762
90,984†
72.3%
2012
27,513
30,296
632
58,441
88,649†
65.9%
2008
32,195
32,042
612
64,849
89,845†
72.2%
2004
30,351
31,984
652
62,987
91,040†
69.2%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupNY HD 15New YorkUnited States
Italian20.5%10.9%4.8%
Irish14.5%10.5%9.4%
German8.6%8.6%12.5%
American4.6%4.2%5.3%
Polish4.4%3.9%2.2%
Russian3.0%1.2%—
English2.9%5.6%9.5%
Greek1.8%——
Asian Indian6.7%1.9%1.4%
Chinese5.8%3.6%1.3%
Korean1.8%0.6%0.4%
Pakistani1.8%0.4%—
Filipino1.5%0.6%0.9%
Bangladeshi0.5%0.6%—
Japanese0.3%0.2%0.2%
Salvadoran2.4%0.9%0.7%
Puerto Rican1.5%5.1%1.8%
Dominican1.3%4.6%0.7%
Colombian0.8%0.9%0.4%
Mexican0.6%2.5%11.3%
Ecuadorian0.6%1.6%—
Honduran0.4%0.3%0.3%
Guatemalan0.4%0.5%0.5%
African American†0.7%8.0%9.9%
Haitian0.2%0.9%0.3%
Jamaican0.2%1.6%0.4%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
NY HD 15
New York
United States
Median age
44.3
39.9
39.1
Age 18–24
8.3%
9.0%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
18.7%
18.0%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
NY HD 15
New York
United States
Median household income
$158,935
$85,974
$84,427
Poverty rate
4.3%
14.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
49.7%
40.0%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
NY HD 15
New York
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
30.7%
30.9%
22.3%
Spanish
13.7%
14.8%
13.6%
French (incl. Cajun & Haitian)
1.8%
1.5%
0.7%
Other Indo-European
6.6%
4.0%
2.0%
Chinese (incl. Mandarin & Cantonese)
2.9%
3.2%
1.1%
Religious landscape
Measure
NY HD 15
New York
United States
Catholic
—
30.8%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
5.1%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
48.7%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
New York 15th State House District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−2.6%
2008
+0.2%
2012
−4.8%
2016
−3.3%
2020
+2.9%
2024
−11.2%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
43.6%Harris31,372
54.8%Trump39,394
1.5%
R+11.2
R+14.1
R+9.7
71,876
D
50.8%Biden37,928
47.9%Trump35,737
1.3%
D+2.9
D+6.2
R+1.5
74,667
R
46.5%Clinton30,591
49.8%Trump32,744
3.7%
R+3.3
D+1.5
R+5.4
65,762
R
47.1%Obama27,513
51.8%Romney30,296
1.1%
R+4.8
R+5.0
R+8.6
58,441
D
49.6%Obama32,195
49.4%McCain32,042
0.9%
D+0.2
D+2.8
R+7.0
64,849
R
48.2%Kerry30,351
50.8%Bush31,984
1.0%
R+2.6
—
R+0.1
62,987
current representation
Current officeholders
RJake BlumencranzState House · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Assembly District 15 covers part of Staten Island, where a working-class and suburban mix has produced some of New York City's most Republican-leaning results — the 2024 presidential margin of R+16.7 reflects a durable rightward tilt unusual for the five boroughs.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 2.9 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 11.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 14.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.2 points.
A population of 132,285, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $158,935 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 16 and Assembly District 19.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
New York 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did New York 15th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, New York 15th State House District voted Republican by 11.2 points (R+11.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 71,876 votes cast, 31,372 went Democratic and 39,394 went Republican.
When did New York 15th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which New York 15th State House District voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in New York 15th State House District?
New York 15th State House District has a population of 132,285 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in New York 15th State House District?
Median household income in New York 15th State House District is $158,935 — above the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of New York 15th State House District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in New York 15th State House District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 4 went Republican.
