Arizona 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
57.8%
1,299 votes · D+19.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 55.4%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
77.8%
18,561 votes · R+56.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 75.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
49,046votes
34.1% of the vote · R+30.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 42,392 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
92,763votes
64.5% of the vote · R+30.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 75,202 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
−2.8pts D vs U.S.
Place R+28.0 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · −4.5 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+46.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+23.4 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +41.8 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RJake HoffmanState Senate · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Arizona 15th State Senate District sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.8 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 56.5 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 30.4 points.
A population of 240,028, a 67% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $112,340 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 14 and State Senate District 19.
Akashic
Political twins — state-senate districts
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arizona 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/04015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Arizona 15th State Senate District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona 15th State Senate District voted Republican by 30.4 points (R+30.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 143,767 votes cast, 49,046 went Democratic and 92,763 went Republican.
When did Arizona 15th State Senate District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arizona 15th State Senate District voted Democratic was 1940.
How many people live in Arizona 15th State Senate District?
Arizona 15th State Senate District has a population of 240,028 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona 15th State Senate District?
Median household income in Arizona 15th State Senate District is $112,340 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona 15th State Senate District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Arizona 15th State Senate District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 25 went Republican.