state senate districtArizona 16th State Senate District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+6.0
2008R+6.9
2012R+6.3
2016R+6.2
2020R+3.9
2024R+9.4
net swing · 2004→2024R+3.4R+6.0 → R+9.4
vs. U.S. · 2024R+7.9R+9.4 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 57.1% of 189,113 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
48,386
58,557
1,068
108,011
189,113
57.1%
2020
46,041
49,845
1,469
97,355
178,091†
54.7%
2016
31,167
35,600
4,919
71,686
156,190†
45.9%
2012
27,024
30,746
1,213
58,983
142,479†
41.4%
2008
27,863
32,058
1,169
61,090
122,622†
49.8%
2004
19,898
22,461
103
42,462
102,765†
41.3%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupAZ SD 16ArizonaUnited States
German13.4%12.6%12.5%
English9.9%10.2%9.5%
Irish9.1%8.9%9.4%
Italian3.8%4.1%4.8%
American3.7%4.0%5.3%
Polish1.9%2.0%2.2%
French1.9%1.8%1.6%
Norwegian1.3%——
Mexican30.2%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.8%0.7%1.8%
Spaniard0.6%0.5%—
Spanish0.6%0.4%—
Salvadoran0.3%0.3%0.7%
Cuban0.2%0.3%0.7%
Nicaraguan0.2%——
African American†5.2%3.6%9.9%
African0.5%0.3%0.5%
Filipino0.6%0.7%0.9%
Asian Indian0.2%0.9%1.4%
Vietnamese0.2%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.2%0.3%0.4%
Chinese0.2%0.6%1.3%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
AZ SD 16
Arizona
United States
Median age
39
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
8.6%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
20.9%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
AZ SD 16
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$76,249
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
13.5%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
26.9%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
AZ SD 16
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
20.8%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
16.9%
19.3%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
AZ SD 16
Arizona
United States
Catholic
—
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Arizona 16th State Senate District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−6.0%
2008
−6.9%
2012
−6.3%
2016
−6.2%
2020
−3.9%
2024
−9.4%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
44.8%Harris48,386
54.2%Trump58,557
1.0%
R+9.4
R+5.5
R+7.9
108,011
R
47.3%Biden46,041
51.2%Trump49,845
1.5%
R+3.9
D+2.3
R+8.4
97,355
R
43.5%Clinton31,167
49.7%Trump35,600
6.9%
R+6.2
D+0.1
R+8.3
71,686
R
45.8%Obama27,024
52.1%Romney30,746
2.1%
R+6.3
D+0.6
R+10.2
58,983
R
45.6%Obama27,863
52.5%McCain32,058
1.9%
R+6.9
R+0.8
R+14.1
61,090
R
46.9%Kerry19,898
52.9%Bush22,461
0.2%
R+6.0
—
R+3.6
42,462
current representation
Current officeholders
RT.J. ShopeState Senate · 16
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Carried Republican by double digits in recent cycles, this district blends outer-ring Phoenix suburbs with rural stretches, producing a consistent conservative lean that has made it a low-volatility seat in statewide targeting maps.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 9.4 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 9.4 points.
A population of 236,940, a 46% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,249 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 23 and State Senate District 19.
Akashic
Political twins — state-senate districts
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arizona 16th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/04016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Arizona 16th State Senate District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona 16th State Senate District voted Republican by 9.4 points (R+9.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 108,011 votes cast, 48,386 went Democratic and 58,557 went Republican.
How many people live in Arizona 16th State Senate District?
Arizona 16th State Senate District has a population of 236,940 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona 16th State Senate District?
Median household income in Arizona 16th State Senate District is $76,249 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona 16th State Senate District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Arizona 16th State Senate District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
