state senate districtHawaii 15th State Senate District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+3.3
2008D+36.1
2012D+40.4
2016D+30.2
2020D+20.6
2024D+14.0
net swing · 2004→2024D+17.4R+3.3 → D+14.0
vs. U.S. · 2024D+15.5D+14.0 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 28.4% of 56,431 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
8,998
6,749
263
16,010
56,431
28.4%
2020
11,532
7,547
307
19,386
54,529†
35.6%
2016
8,574
4,397
840
13,811
54,267†
25.5%
2012
9,960
4,172
190
14,322
52,079†
27.5%
2008
9,974
4,627
229
14,830
49,433†
30.0%
2004
7,091
7,584
85
14,760
46,787†
31.5%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupHI SD 15HawaiiUnited States
Filipino15.1%14.3%0.9%
Japanese13.8%11.7%0.2%
Chinese5.5%4.1%1.3%
Korean1.8%1.4%0.4%
Vietnamese1.0%0.8%0.6%
Asian Indian0.2%0.2%1.4%
Thai0.2%0.2%—
Laotian0.2%——
German7.5%5.8%12.5%
English6.1%5.1%9.5%
Irish5.9%4.7%9.4%
Portuguese3.2%3.2%—
Italian2.5%2.1%4.8%
American1.8%1.0%5.3%
French1.4%1.2%1.6%
Polish1.1%0.7%2.2%
Mexican3.4%3.4%11.3%
Puerto Rican3.3%3.3%1.8%
Spanish1.3%1.3%—
Spaniard0.7%0.7%—
Cuban0.2%—0.7%
Native Hawaiian5.9%6.1%—
Samoan1.4%0.9%—
Marshallese0.6%0.6%—
Chuukese0.5%0.3%—
Tongan0.3%0.3%—
Chamorro0.3%0.2%—
African American†3.4%1.1%9.9%
African0.4%—0.5%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
HI SD 15
Hawaii
United States
Median age
32.8
41
39.1
Age 18–24
8.7%
8.0%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
19.5%
20.5%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
HI SD 15
Hawaii
United States
Median household income
$92,806
$100,389
$84,427
Poverty rate
8.6%
10.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
38.5%
36.2%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
HI SD 15
Hawaii
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
26.0%
24.7%
22.3%
Spanish
2.0%
2.1%
13.6%
Chinese (incl. Mandarin & Cantonese)
3.4%
2.5%
1.1%
Tagalog (incl. Filipino)
4.9%
4.4%
0.6%
Other Asian & Pacific Island
11.5%
11.6%
1.1%
Religious landscape
Measure
HI SD 15
Hawaii
United States
Catholic
—
18.6%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
8.9%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
59.7%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Hawaii 15th State Senate District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−3.3%
2008
+36.1%
2012
+40.4%
2016
+30.2%
2020
+20.6%
2024
+14.0%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
D
56.2%Harris8,998
42.2%Trump6,749
1.6%
D+14.0
R+6.5
D+15.5
16,010
D
59.5%Biden11,532
38.9%Trump7,547
1.6%
D+20.6
R+9.7
D+16.1
19,386
D
62.1%Clinton8,574
31.8%Trump4,397
6.1%
D+30.2
R+10.2
D+28.2
13,811
D
69.5%Obama9,960
29.1%Romney4,172
1.3%
D+40.4
D+4.4
D+36.6
14,322
D
67.3%Obama9,974
31.2%McCain4,627
1.5%
D+36.1
D+39.4
D+28.8
14,830
R
48.0%Kerry7,091
51.4%Bush7,584
0.6%
R+3.3
—
R+0.9
14,760
current representation
Current officeholders
DGlenn WakaiState Senate · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Centered in urban Honolulu, this district's dense residential neighborhoods and diverse working-class population have produced consistent double-digit Democratic presidential margins, making it one of Hawaii's more reliably blue legislative seats.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.4 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 3.3 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.0 points.
A population of 79,465, a 22% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $92,806 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 19 and State Senate District 14.
Akashic
Political twins — state-senate districts
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Hawaii 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/15015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Hawaii 15th State Senate District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Hawaii 15th State Senate District voted Democratic by 14.0 points (D+14.0), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 16,010 votes cast, 8,998 went Democratic and 6,749 went Republican.
When did Hawaii 15th State Senate District last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Hawaii 15th State Senate District voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in Hawaii 15th State Senate District?
Hawaii 15th State Senate District has a population of 79,465 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hawaii 15th State Senate District?
Median household income in Hawaii 15th State Senate District is $92,806 — above the national median of $80,734. The Hawaii state median is $100,389.
What is the political history of Hawaii 15th State Senate District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Hawaii 15th State Senate District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 1 went Republican.
