state senate districtMinnesota 15th State Senate District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+14.4
2008R+5.0
2012R+11.9
2016R+33.4
2020R+31.8
2024R+35.6
net swing · 2004→2024R+21.2R+14.4 → R+35.6
vs. U.S. · 2024R+34.1R+35.6 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 73.5% of 63,327 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
14,485
31,038
993
46,516
63,327
73.5%
2020
15,398
30,208
965
46,571
62,916†
74.0%
2016
12,722
27,339
3,759
43,820
63,989†
68.5%
2012
19,039
24,332
1,147
44,518
64,913†
68.6%
2008
20,722
23,008
1,719
45,449
63,885†
71.1%
2004
19,303
25,921
724
45,948
62,858†
73.1%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupMN SD 15MinnesotaUnited States
German44.7%29.2%12.5%
Norwegian16.0%12.1%—
Irish6.4%9.9%9.4%
English4.7%6.6%9.5%
Swedish4.1%6.5%—
American2.6%2.3%5.3%
Polish2.3%3.7%2.2%
French2.1%1.8%1.6%
Mexican3.5%3.9%11.3%
Guatemalan0.4%0.2%0.5%
Honduran0.2%—0.3%
Salvadoran0.2%0.2%0.7%
Hmong0.9%1.7%—
Burmese0.4%0.2%—
African American†0.6%3.8%9.9%
Somali0.2%1.1%—
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
MN SD 15
Minnesota
United States
Median age
40.9
39
39.1
Age 18–24
9.5%
8.8%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
20.7%
17.2%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
MN SD 15
Minnesota
United States
Median household income
$71,688
$89,062
$84,427
Poverty rate
10.4%
9.3%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
26.2%
39.4%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
MN SD 15
Minnesota
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
6.9%
12.5%
22.3%
Spanish
3.8%
4.2%
13.6%
Other Asian & Pacific Island
1.2%
2.3%
1.1%
Religious landscape
Measure
MN SD 15
Minnesota
United States
Catholic
—
19.5%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
11.8%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
50.6%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Minnesota 15th State Senate District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−14.4%
2008
−5.0%
2012
−11.9%
2016
−33.4%
2020
−31.8%
2024
−35.6%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
31.1%Harris14,485
66.7%Trump31,038
2.1%
R+35.6
R+3.8
R+34.1
46,516
R
33.1%Biden15,398
64.9%Trump30,208
2.1%
R+31.8
D+1.6
R+36.3
46,571
R
29.0%Clinton12,722
62.4%Trump27,339
8.6%
R+33.4
R+21.5
R+35.4
43,820
R
42.8%Obama19,039
54.7%Romney24,332
2.6%
R+11.9
R+6.9
R+15.7
44,518
R
45.6%Obama20,722
50.6%McCain23,008
3.8%
R+5.0
D+9.4
R+12.3
45,449
R
42.0%Kerry19,303
56.4%Bush25,921
1.6%
R+14.4
—
R+11.9
45,948
current representation
Current officeholders
RGary DahmsState Senate · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+35, this district anchors the conservative edge of Minnesota's state senate map, suggesting a rural or exurban electorate that diverges sharply from the state's statewide competitiveness.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 35.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 35.6 points.
A population of 84,865, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,688 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 21 and State Senate District 12.
Akashic
Political twins — state-senate districts
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Minnesota 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Minnesota 15th State Senate District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Minnesota 15th State Senate District voted Republican by 35.6 points (R+35.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 46,516 votes cast, 14,485 went Democratic and 31,038 went Republican.
How many people live in Minnesota 15th State Senate District?
Minnesota 15th State Senate District has a population of 84,865 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Minnesota 15th State Senate District?
Median household income in Minnesota 15th State Senate District is $71,688 — below the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Minnesota 15th State Senate District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Minnesota 15th State Senate District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
