HarrisDemocratic31.1%14,491TrumpRepublican66.7%31,054OtherAll other candidates2.1%994
R+35.6- Lead
- 16,563
- Total
- 46,539
- vs nation
- R+34.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate senate district
Minnesota 15th State Senate District
Contests in this Place (46 available)
President38 · 1876–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic33.1%15,403TrumpRepublican64.9%30,224OtherAll other candidates2.1%966
R+31.8- Lead
- 14,821
- Total
- 46,593
- vs nation
- R+36.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic29.0%12,727TrumpRepublican62.4%27,355OtherAll other candidates8.6%3,760
R+33.4- Lead
- 14,628
- Total
- 43,842
- vs nation
- R+35.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic42.9%19,146RomneyRepublican54.6%24,365OtherAll other candidates2.6%1,147
R+11.7- Lead
- 5,219
- Total
- 44,658
- vs nation
- R+15.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic46.1%20,770McCainRepublican51.2%23,087OtherAll other candidates2.7%1,211
R+5.1- Lead
- 2,317
- Total
- 45,068
- vs nation
- R+12.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic42.0%19,347BushRepublican56.5%26,002OtherAll other candidates1.5%695
R+14.5- Lead
- 6,655
- Total
- 46,044
- vs nation
- R+12.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic40.2%17,339BushRepublican53.5%23,050OtherAll other candidates6.3%2,700
R+13.3- Lead
- 5,711
- Total
- 43,089
- vs nation
- R+13.8
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic43.5%18,610DoleRepublican42.1%18,005OtherAll other candidates14.4%6,159
D+1.4- Lead
- 605
- Total
- 42,774
- vs nation
- R+7.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+35.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 84,8652024 5-year
- Population density
- 22 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 3,818 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $71,6882024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+39.8 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.1 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 21, MN · twin score 94.8
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
68.9%
25,558 votes · D+39.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 59.5%
Republican
James A. Garfield1880
79.9%
5,150 votes · R+60.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · 78.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
26,728votes
58.5% of the vote · D+17.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 26,128 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
31,054votes
66.7% of the vote · R+35.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 30,224 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
+22.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+39.8 · U.S. D+17.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George McGovern, 1972 · +9.8 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+42.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+62.3 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · +37.9 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RGary DahmsState Senate · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 28.7%13,014 | 71.3%32,362 | 45,376 |
| 2020 | R | 40.2%17,093 | 59.8%25,403 | 42,496 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+35, this district anchors the conservative edge of Minnesota's state senate map, suggesting a rural or exurban electorate that diverges sharply from the state's statewide competitiveness.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.8 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 64.1 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 35.6 points.
A population of 84,865, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,688 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 21 and State Senate District 12.
Political twins — state-senate districts
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State Senate District 21
Minnesota
94.8twin score
12-yr trendelasticity2016–2024 trajectory
State Senate District 12
Minnesota
94.3twin score
12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory≠ % unaffiliated
State Senate District 25
North Dakota
94.1twin score
12-yr trendelasticity% unaffiliated≠ population scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Minnesota 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Places within Minnesota 15th State Senate District
Frequently asked questions
How did Minnesota 15th State Senate District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Minnesota 15th State Senate District voted Republican by 35.6 points (R+35.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 46,539 votes cast, 14,491 went Democratic and 31,054 went Republican.
When did Minnesota 15th State Senate District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Minnesota 15th State Senate District voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Minnesota 15th State Senate District?
Minnesota 15th State Senate District has a population of 84,865 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Minnesota 15th State Senate District?
Median household income in Minnesota 15th State Senate District is $71,688 — below the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Minnesota 15th State Senate District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Minnesota 15th State Senate District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 29 went Republican.