Modesto, CA · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain, and this place is a single county: Stanislaus County, California. The figures below are that county’s, which is the same territory — not a larger unit standing in for it.
Presidential nominating contests in Modesto, CA, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+2.0
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+11.0
Modesto, CA registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 13-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
290,690 registered voters · 2024 · up from 280,489 in 2022
Domestic migration in Modesto, CA in Modesto, CA: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−2,280
2012
−1,284
2013
−1,195
2014
+505
2015
+881
2016
+1,717
2017
+1,651
2018
+372
2019
−679
2021
−2,468
2022
−4,434
2023
−3,060
2024
−2,284
2025
−2,425
The Modesto metro sits at the heart of California's San Joaquin Valley, where agricultural employment and a rapidly diversifying suburban population have produced competitive margins in statewide contests that often track national mood swings.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.6 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 47.3 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 11.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.0 points.
A population of 553,990, a 36% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,468 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Merced, CA and Fresno, CA.
Akashic
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Modesto, CA, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/33700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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In 2024, Modesto, CA, California voted Republican by 11.0 points (R+11.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 197,472 votes cast, 85,347 went Democratic and 106,986 went Republican.
When did Modesto, CA, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Modesto, CA, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Modesto, CA, California?
Modesto, CA, California has a population of 553,990 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Modesto, CA, California?
Median household income in Modesto, CA, California is $81,468 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Modesto, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Modesto, CA, California from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.
