† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
1 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupModesto, CACaliforniaUnited States
Mexican46.0%32.3%11.3%
Salvadoran0.8%2.0%0.7%
Puerto Rican0.6%0.6%1.8%
Guatemalan0.4%1.3%0.5%
Spaniard0.4%0.3%—
Spanish0.3%0.3%—
Nicaraguan0.2%0.3%—
German6.7%6.8%12.5%
Irish6.0%5.9%9.4%
English6.0%6.3%9.5%
Portuguese4.0%——
Italian3.0%3.4%4.8%
American2.1%2.8%5.3%
French1.1%1.3%1.6%
Scottish1.1%0.9%1.3%
Asian Indian1.8%2.3%1.4%
Filipino1.2%3.3%0.9%
Chinese0.7%3.9%1.3%
Cambodian0.6%——
Afghan0.5%——
Vietnamese0.4%1.7%0.6%
Hmong0.2%0.3%—
African American†2.1%4.4%9.9%
Aztec0.4%0.3%—
Fijian0.3%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Modesto, CA
California
United States
Median age
34.9
37.9
39.1
Age 18–24
9.4%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
13.9%
15.6%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Modesto, CA
California
United States
Median household income
$81,468
$99,122
$84,427
Poverty rate
13.5%
12.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
19.6%
36.6%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Modesto, CA
California
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
43.0%
44.4%
22.3%
Spanish
34.1%
28.4%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
3.9%
3.4%
2.0%
Other Asian & Pacific Island
1.0%
2.0%
1.1%
Other languages
1.2%
0.6%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
Modesto, CA
California
United States
Catholic
21.0%
26.2%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
11.3%
9.0%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
61.1%
55.2%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Modesto, CA
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1892
+14.8%
1896
+15.9%
1900
+8.8%
1904
−11.9%
1908
−7.6%
1912
+39.6%
1916
+9.3%
1920
−34.9%
1924
−47.3%
1928
−35.5%
1932
+22.4%
1936
+27.7%
1940
+5.3%
1944
+4.1%
1948
−0.6%
1952
−11.4%
1956
+2.4%
1960
+0.1%
1964
+32.4%
1968
+2.7%
1972
−5.9%
1976
+7.5%
1980
−9.4%
1984
−19.4%
1988
−7.2%
1992
+4.0%
1996
+1.1%
2000
−8.4%
2004
−18.3%
2008
+1.7%
2012
+2.7%
2016
+1.8%
2020
+0.8%
2024
−11.0%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
43.2%Harris85,347
54.2%Trump106,986
1.4%Kennedy2,816 +4
R+11.0
R+11.7
R+9.5
197,472
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican54.2%106,986
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic43.2%85,347
Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent1.4%2,816
Jill SteinIndependent0.5%983
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.4%715
Chase OliverLibertarian0.3%622
OtherAll other candidates0.0%3
D
49.0%Biden105,841
48.2%Trump104,145
2.8%
D+0.8
R+1.0
R+3.7
215,987
D
46.8%Clinton81,647
45.0%Trump78,494
8.2%
D+1.8
R+0.9
R+0.3
174,406
D
49.9%Obama77,724
47.1%Romney73,459
3.0%
D+2.7
D+1.0
R+1.1
155,816
D
49.7%Obama80,279
48.0%McCain77,497
2.3%
D+1.7
D+20.0
R+5.5
161,512
R
40.4%Kerry58,829
58.6%Bush85,407
1.0%
R+18.3
R+9.9
R+15.8
145,624
R
44.0%Gore56,448
52.4%Bush67,188
3.6%
R+8.4
R+9.5
R+8.9
128,267
D
45.9%Clinton53,738
44.8%Dole52,403
9.3%
D+1.1
R+2.9
R+7.4
117,007
D
40.9%Clinton52,415
36.9%Bush47,275
22.1%
D+4.0
D+11.2
R+1.5
128,005
R
45.9%Dukakis44,685
53.1%Bush51,648
1.0%
R+7.2
D+12.2
D+0.6
97,315
R
39.9%Mondale37,459
59.2%Reagan55,665
0.9%
R+19.4
R+10.0
R+1.2
93,985
R
40.0%Carter33,683
49.4%Reagan41,595
10.6%
R+9.4
R+16.9
D+0.3
84,186
D
52.3%Carter38,448
44.8%Ford32,937
2.8%
D+7.5
D+13.4
D+5.4
73,465
R
45.5%McGovern35,005
51.4%Nixon39,521
3.0%
R+5.9
R+8.6
D+17.3
76,867
D
48.1%Humphrey31,316
45.5%Nixon29,573
6.4%
D+2.7
R+29.7
D+3.4
65,063
D
66.1%Johnson43,078
33.7%Goldwater21,973
0.1%
D+32.4
D+32.3
D+9.8
65,128
D
49.8%Kennedy30,302
49.6%Nixon30,213
0.6%
D+0.1
R+2.3
±0.0
60,890
D
51.0%Stevenson28,040
48.6%Eisenhower26,695
0.3%
D+2.4
D+13.9
D+17.9
54,927
R
43.7%Stevenson22,271
55.2%Eisenhower28,090
1.1%
R+11.4
R+10.9
R+0.7
50,913
R
47.8%Truman18,350
48.4%Dewey18,564
3.8%
R+0.6
R+4.7
R+5.0
38,371
D
51.3%Roosevelt15,537
47.2%Dewey14,297
1.4%
D+4.1
R+1.2
R+3.4
30,271
D
52.0%Roosevelt16,494
46.6%Willkie14,803
1.4%
D+5.3
R+22.4
R+4.6
31,746
D
63.1%Roosevelt15,341
35.4%Landon8,613
1.4%
D+27.7
D+5.2
D+3.4
24,302
D
58.6%Roosevelt12,336
36.2%Hoover7,614
5.2%
D+22.4
D+58.0
D+4.7
21,042
R
31.6%Smith5,063
67.1%Hoover10,753
1.3%
R+35.5
D+11.8
R+18.1
16,019
R
9.6%Davis1,274
56.9%Coolidge7,569
33.6%
R+47.3
R+12.4
R+22.1
13,312
R
26.7%Cox3,055
61.6%Harding7,038
11.6%
R+34.9
R+44.2
R+8.7
11,423
D
47.0%Wilson5,490
37.7%Hughes4,401
15.4%
D+9.3
R+30.3
D+6.2
11,687
O
39.6%Wilson3,127
0.0%Taft0
60.4%
Roosevelt +20.8
D+47.2
D+20.0
7,900
R
38.8%Bryan1,390
46.5%Taft1,663
14.7%
R+7.6
D+4.3
D+1.9
3,580
R
40.5%Parker1,110
52.4%Roosevelt1,437
7.1%
R+11.9
R+20.7
D+7.7
2,743
D
52.6%Bryan1,270
43.8%McKinley1,058
3.6%
D+8.8
R+7.1
D+16.3
2,415
D
56.8%Bryan1,398
40.9%McKinley1,007
2.3%
D+15.9
D+1.1
D+22.0
2,461
D
53.7%Cleveland1,369
38.9%Harrison992
7.4%
D+14.8
—
D+13.1
2,550
Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
44.7%86,040
55.3%106,444
192,484
2022
R
45.0%57,861
55.0%70,792
128,653
2018
D
100.0%136,099
0.0%0
136,099
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+2.0
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+11.0
Modesto, CA registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 13-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
290,690 registered voters · 2024 · up from 280,489 in 2022
Domestic migration in Modesto, CA in Modesto, CA: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−2,280
2012
−1,284
2013
−1,195
2014
+505
2015
+881
2016
+1,717
2017
+1,651
2018
+372
2019
−679
2021
−2,468
2022
−4,434
2023
−3,060
2024
−2,284
2025
−2,425
The Modesto metro sits at the heart of California's San Joaquin Valley, where agricultural employment and a rapidly diversifying suburban population have produced competitive margins in statewide contests that often track national mood swings.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.6 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 47.3 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 11.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.0 points.
A population of 553,990, a 36% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,468 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Merced, CA and Fresno, CA.
Akashic
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Modesto, CA, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/33700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
In 2024, Modesto, CA, California voted Republican by 11.0 points (R+11.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 197,472 votes cast, 85,347 went Democratic and 106,986 went Republican.
When did Modesto, CA, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Modesto, CA, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Modesto, CA, California?
Modesto, CA, California has a population of 553,990 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Modesto, CA, California?
Median household income in Modesto, CA, California is $81,468 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Modesto, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Modesto, CA, California from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.
