† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
1 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupMerced, CACaliforniaUnited States
Mexican60.5%32.3%11.3%
Salvadoran0.6%2.0%0.7%
Puerto Rican0.3%0.6%1.8%
Guatemalan0.3%1.3%0.5%
Spaniard0.3%0.3%—
Spanish0.3%0.3%—
Portuguese4.8%——
German4.3%6.8%12.5%
Irish3.3%5.9%9.4%
English3.3%6.3%9.5%
Italian1.8%3.4%4.8%
American1.7%2.8%5.3%
French0.8%1.3%1.6%
Scottish0.6%0.9%1.3%
Asian Indian2.5%2.3%1.4%
Hmong1.9%0.3%—
Filipino1.0%3.3%0.9%
Chinese0.3%3.9%1.3%
Vietnamese0.2%1.7%0.6%
Korean0.2%1.2%0.4%
Thai0.2%——
Laotian0.2%——
African American†2.4%4.4%9.9%
African0.2%0.3%0.5%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Merced, CA
California
United States
Median age
31.8
37.9
39.1
Age 18–24
11.3%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
11.7%
15.6%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Merced, CA
California
United States
Median household income
$65,510
$99,122
$84,427
Poverty rate
19.1%
12.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
15.3%
36.6%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Merced, CA
California
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
52.7%
44.4%
22.3%
Spanish
44.2%
28.4%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
4.5%
3.4%
2.0%
Other Asian & Pacific Island
2.3%
2.0%
1.1%
Religious landscape
Measure
Merced, CA
California
United States
Catholic
33.9%
26.2%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
7.0%
9.0%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
54.9%
55.2%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Merced, CA
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1892
+10.8%
1896
+25.7%
1900
+13.8%
1904
−5.5%
1908
−0.3%
1912
+46.8%
1916
+9.6%
1920
−35.0%
1924
−42.4%
1928
−21.7%
1932
+39.9%
1936
+47.2%
1940
+26.2%
1944
+16.9%
1948
+12.3%
1952
−6.3%
1956
+7.8%
1960
+12.9%
1964
+37.6%
1968
+10.1%
1972
−11.7%
1976
+5.6%
1980
−5.8%
1984
−18.8%
1988
−3.8%
1992
+4.4%
1996
+2.0%
2000
−6.7%
2004
−14.3%
2008
+8.3%
2012
+8.7%
2016
+12.1%
2020
+10.5%
2024
−4.4%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
46.5%Harris40,190
50.9%Trump43,955
1.4%Kennedy1,184 +4
R+4.4
R+14.9
R+2.9
86,392
All 7 candidates in 2024 · 5 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican50.9%43,955
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic46.5%40,190
Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent1.4%1,184
Jill SteinIndependent0.5%421
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.4%352
Chase OliverLibertarian0.3%265
OtherAll other candidates0.0%25
D
53.8%Biden48,991
43.3%Trump39,397
2.9%
D+10.5
R+1.5
D+6.1
90,993
D
52.5%Clinton37,317
40.4%Trump28,725
7.1%
D+12.1
D+3.4
D+10.0
71,127
D
53.0%Obama33,005
44.3%Romney27,581
2.6%
D+8.7
D+0.4
D+4.9
62,222
D
53.1%Obama34,031
44.8%McCain28,704
2.1%
D+8.3
D+22.6
D+1.0
64,051
R
42.3%Kerry24,491
56.5%Bush32,773
1.2%
R+14.3
R+7.6
R+11.8
57,960
R
45.1%Gore22,726
51.8%Bush26,102
3.2%
R+6.7
R+8.7
R+7.2
50,418
D
46.4%Clinton21,786
44.4%Dole20,847
9.2%
D+2.0
R+2.4
R+6.5
46,938
D
40.9%Clinton20,133
36.5%Bush17,981
22.7%
D+4.4
D+8.2
R+1.2
49,284
R
47.4%Dukakis20,105
51.2%Bush21,717
1.4%
R+3.8
D+15.0
D+3.9
42,414
R
40.0%Mondale17,012
58.8%Reagan24,997
1.1%
R+18.8
R+13.0
R+0.6
42,477
R
42.9%Carter15,886
48.8%Reagan18,043
8.3%
R+5.8
R+11.4
D+3.9
36,996
D
51.7%Carter16,637
46.1%Ford14,842
2.3%
D+5.6
D+17.3
D+3.5
32,208
R
42.6%McGovern13,914
54.3%Nixon17,737
3.1%
R+11.7
R+21.8
D+11.4
32,648
D
51.0%Humphrey14,453
40.9%Nixon11,595
8.1%
D+10.1
R+27.5
D+10.8
28,349
D
68.7%Johnson19,431
31.2%Goldwater8,814
0.1%
D+37.6
D+24.7
D+15.0
28,269
D
56.2%Kennedy15,545
43.4%Nixon11,990
0.4%
D+12.9
D+5.1
D+12.7
27,646
D
53.8%Stevenson13,366
46.0%Eisenhower11,430
0.2%
D+7.8
D+14.1
D+23.2
24,852
R
46.4%Stevenson11,316
52.7%Eisenhower12,865
0.9%
R+6.3
R+18.7
D+4.4
24,395
D
54.9%Truman9,959
42.6%Dewey7,721
2.4%
D+12.3
R+4.6
D+7.9
18,124
D
58.3%Roosevelt9,192
41.3%Dewey6,518
0.4%
D+16.9
R+9.3
D+9.5
15,779
D
62.6%Roosevelt10,501
36.4%Willkie6,101
1.1%
D+26.2
R+21.0
D+16.3
16,784
D
72.7%Roosevelt9,208
25.5%Landon3,230
1.8%
D+47.2
D+7.3
D+22.9
12,668
D
67.1%Roosevelt7,202
27.2%Hoover2,920
5.7%
D+39.9
D+61.6
D+22.1
10,734
R
38.5%Smith2,970
60.2%Hoover4,644
1.3%
R+21.7
D+20.7
R+4.2
7,718
R
10.5%Davis710
52.9%Coolidge3,573
36.5%
R+42.4
R+7.4
R+17.2
6,749
R
28.0%Cox1,537
63.0%Harding3,457
9.0%
R+35.0
R+44.6
R+8.8
5,488
D
50.4%Wilson2,637
40.7%Hughes2,132
8.9%
D+9.6
R+37.1
D+6.5
5,236
O
46.8%Wilson1,978
0.0%Taft0
53.2%
Roosevelt +6.4
D+47.1
D+27.2
4,228
R
44.3%Bryan1,100
44.6%Taft1,107
11.1%
R+0.3
D+5.2
D+9.3
2,483
R
43.6%Parker863
49.1%Roosevelt972
7.4%
R+5.5
R+19.3
D+14.2
1,981
D
55.4%Bryan1,081
41.6%McKinley811
3.0%
D+13.8
R+11.9
D+21.4
1,950
D
62.0%Bryan1,117
36.2%McKinley653
1.8%
D+25.7
D+14.9
D+31.8
1,802
D
50.5%Cleveland995
39.7%Harrison782
9.9%
D+10.8
—
D+9.1
1,972
Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
48.3%40,394
51.7%43,320
83,714
2022
R
49.0%26,755
51.0%27,893
54,648
2018
D
100.0%51,644
0.0%0
51,644
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+11.3
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+4.4
Merced, CA registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 16-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
130,472 registered voters · 2024 · up from 124,827 in 2022
Domestic migration in Merced, CA in Merced, CA: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−338
2012
−1,127
2013
−1,508
2014
−286
2015
−705
2016
−1,317
2017
+1,012
2018
+1,046
2019
+1,381
2021
+3,329
2022
+1,459
2023
−656
2024
−890
2025
−1,310
Merced's population is majority Latino and among the youngest in California, with UC Merced's expansion adding a growing student demographic that analysts watch as a bellwether for inland Valley turnout trends.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 47.2 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 42.4 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 14.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 4.4 points.
A population of 290,201, a 23% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,510 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Modesto, CA and Fresno, CA.
Akashic
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Merced, CA, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/32900/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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In 2024, Merced, CA, California voted Republican by 4.4 points (R+4.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 86,392 votes cast, 40,190 went Democratic and 43,955 went Republican.
When did Merced, CA, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Merced, CA, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Merced, CA, California?
Merced, CA, California has a population of 290,201 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Merced, CA, California?
Median household income in Merced, CA, California is $65,510 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Merced, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Merced, CA, California from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.
