† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
2 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZArizonaUnited States
German12.5%12.6%12.5%
English9.8%10.2%9.5%
Irish8.8%8.9%9.4%
Italian4.3%4.1%4.8%
American4.2%4.0%5.3%
Polish2.2%2.0%2.2%
French1.7%1.8%1.6%
Scottish1.5%1.7%1.3%
Mexican26.3%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.7%0.7%1.8%
Guatemalan0.5%0.4%0.5%
Spaniard0.5%0.5%—
Cuban0.4%0.3%0.7%
Salvadoran0.4%0.3%0.7%
Spanish0.4%0.4%—
Colombian0.2%0.2%0.4%
African American†4.6%3.6%9.9%
African0.4%0.3%0.5%
Nigerian0.2%—0.2%
Asian Indian1.2%0.9%1.4%
Filipino0.8%0.7%0.9%
Chinese0.7%0.6%1.3%
Vietnamese0.6%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.3%0.3%0.4%
Japanese0.2%0.2%0.2%
Navajo0.6%1.9%—
Aztec0.2%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Arizona
United States
Median age
37.9
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
9.2%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
16.7%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$88,457
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
11.0%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
35.4%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
25.3%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
19.0%
19.3%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.3%
1.0%
2.0%
Other languages
1.0%
2.0%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Arizona
United States
Catholic
23.0%
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
10.9%
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
53.3%
55.8%
51.5%
Latter-day Saints
6.2%
6.1%
2.0%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1912
+34.5%
1916
+13.5%
1920
−12.0%
1924
−5.8%
1928
−23.1%
1932
+32.3%
1936
+39.3%
1940
+23.0%
1944
+13.6%
1948
+6.2%
1952
−20.0%
1956
−24.7%
1960
−17.3%
1964
−6.4%
1968
−26.0%
1972
−41.5%
1976
−25.6%
1980
−39.1%
1984
−43.5%
1988
−29.9%
1992
−7.7%
1996
−1.8%
2000
−9.9%
2004
−14.6%
2008
−10.8%
2012
−11.1%
2016
−4.1%
2020
+0.6%
2024
−5.2%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
46.9%Harris1,060,672
52.1%Trump1,178,457
0.6%Stein12,547 +6
R+5.2
R+5.8
R+3.7
2,263,967
All 9 candidates in 2024 · 7 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican52.1%1,178,457
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic46.9%1,060,672
Jill SteinIndependent0.6%12,547
Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%11,821
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.0%388
Shiva AyyaduraiIndependent0.0%40
SkousenIndependent0.0%28
SheltonIndependent0.0%10
BoddieIndependent0.0%4
D
49.3%Biden1,115,880
48.8%Trump1,102,742
1.9%
D+0.6
D+4.7
R+3.9
2,261,611
R
44.2%Clinton750,799
48.3%Trump820,180
7.4%
R+4.1
D+7.0
R+6.2
1,697,380
R
43.4%Obama646,594
54.5%Romney811,964
2.1%
R+11.1
R+0.3
R+15.0
1,489,641
R
44.0%Obama646,420
54.8%McCain805,869
1.2%
R+10.8
D+3.8
R+18.1
1,469,845
R
42.2%Kerry532,101
56.9%Bush716,461
0.9%
R+14.6
R+4.7
R+12.2
1,259,583
R
43.1%Gore406,333
53.0%Bush500,089
3.9%
R+9.9
R+8.1
R+10.5
942,989
R
44.9%Clinton383,570
46.7%Dole399,049
8.4%
R+1.8
D+5.9
R+10.3
854,327
R
32.9%Clinton300,925
40.7%Bush371,718
26.4%
R+7.7
D+22.2
R+13.3
913,571
R
34.4%Dukakis244,802
64.3%Bush457,303
1.2%
R+29.9
D+13.6
R+22.2
710,698
R
27.8%Mondale166,756
71.3%Reagan428,366
1.0%
R+43.5
R+4.4
R+25.3
600,892
R
25.3%Carter128,959
64.4%Reagan328,482
10.3%
R+39.1
R+13.5
R+29.4
510,092
R
35.3%Carter155,208
60.9%Ford267,616
3.8%
R+25.6
D+15.9
R+27.6
439,445
R
27.4%McGovern101,539
68.9%Nixon255,177
3.7%
R+41.5
R+15.5
R+18.3
370,559
R
32.2%Humphrey93,613
58.1%Nixon169,145
9.7%
R+26.0
R+19.5
R+25.3
290,897
R
46.8%Johnson131,953
53.2%Goldwater150,070
0.1%
R+6.4
D+10.9
R+29.0
282,198
R
41.3%Kennedy94,066
58.6%Nixon133,531
0.1%
R+17.3
D+7.4
R+17.5
227,743
R
37.6%Stevenson59,073
62.3%Eisenhower97,902
0.1%
R+24.7
R+4.7
R+9.3
157,183
R
40.0%Stevenson54,807
60.0%Eisenhower82,234
0.0%
R+20.0
R+26.2
R+9.3
137,041
D
51.9%Truman44,070
45.7%Dewey38,817
2.3%
D+6.2
R+7.4
D+1.7
84,879
D
56.6%Roosevelt35,223
43.0%Dewey26,762
0.4%
D+13.6
R+9.4
D+6.1
62,215
D
61.2%Roosevelt39,466
38.1%Willkie24,606
0.7%
D+23.0
R+16.3
D+13.1
64,508
D
67.7%Roosevelt35,529
28.4%Landon14,887
3.9%
D+39.3
D+7.0
D+15.1
52,478
D
65.5%Roosevelt31,738
33.2%Hoover16,086
1.3%
D+32.3
D+55.4
D+14.5
48,464
R
38.4%Smith13,565
61.5%Hoover21,720
0.1%
R+23.1
R+17.3
R+5.6
35,323
R
38.9%Davis10,165
44.7%Coolidge11,686
16.3%
R+5.8
D+6.1
D+19.4
26,119
R
44.0%Cox10,089
56.0%Harding12,829
0.0%
R+12.0
R+25.4
D+14.2
22,918
D
52.7%Wilson8,866
39.3%Hughes6,602
8.0%
D+13.5
R+21.1
D+10.3
16,819
D
45.7%Wilson2,958
11.2%Taft722
43.2%
D+34.5
—
D+15.0
6,474
—
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
D
50.5%1,132,440
47.1%1,056,060
2,241,910
2022
D
51.4%871,582
46.5%789,311
1,697,254
2018
D
50.4%783,156
47.3%736,287
1,555,347
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+8.0
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+5.2
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.8 points.
Domestic migration in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+6,079
2012
+34,672
2013
+30,360
2014
+39,914
2015
+46,659
2016
+53,626
2017
+50,769
2018
+62,999
2019
+71,657
2021
+63,240
2022
+46,119
2023
+19,110
2024
+21,267
2025
+22,256
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler added roughly 200,000 residents between 2020 and 2023, accelerating a suburban realignment that narrowed once-reliable statewide margins and elevated Maricopa County to one of the most closely watched bellwether counties in the Southwest.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.3 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 43.5 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 5.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.2 points.
A population of 5,028,754, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $88,457 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX and Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX.
Akashic
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/38060/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona voted Republican by 5.2 points (R+5.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,263,967 votes cast, 1,060,672 went Democratic and 1,178,457 went Republican.
When did Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona has a population of 5,028,754 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona is $88,457 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 21 went Republican.
