congressional districtArizona 4th Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+11.0
2008R+6.9
2012R+7.3
2016D+2.5
2020D+10.3
2024D+6.7
net swing · 2004→2024D+17.6R+11.0 → D+6.7
vs. U.S. · 2024D+8.1D+6.7 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 59.1% of 588,263 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
182,893
159,723
4,995
347,611
588,263
59.1%
2020
200,804
162,604
7,291
370,699
553,493†
67.0%
2016
135,868
128,584
27,481
291,933
499,741†
58.4%
2012
121,734
141,207
5,598
268,539
456,568†
58.8%
2008
128,001
147,165
3,951
279,117
439,337†
63.5%
2004
107,210
133,841
1,524
242,575
422,106†
57.5%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupAZ-4ArizonaUnited States
German14.4%12.6%12.5%
English11.4%10.2%9.5%
Irish10.2%8.9%9.4%
Italian5.1%4.1%4.8%
American4.9%4.0%5.3%
Polish2.6%2.0%2.2%
French2.0%1.8%1.6%
Scottish2.0%1.7%1.3%
Mexican22.5%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.6%0.7%1.8%
Guatemalan0.4%0.4%0.5%
Spaniard0.4%0.5%—
Cuban0.3%0.3%0.7%
Salvadoran0.3%0.3%0.7%
Spanish0.3%0.4%—
Colombian0.2%0.2%0.4%
Asian Indian1.6%0.9%1.4%
Chinese1.0%0.6%1.3%
Filipino1.0%0.7%0.9%
Vietnamese0.8%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.4%0.3%0.4%
Japanese0.3%0.2%0.2%
African American†4.8%3.6%9.9%
African0.4%0.3%0.5%
Nigerian0.2%—0.2%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
AZ-4
Arizona
United States
Median age
35.3
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
9.3%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
16.3%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
AZ-4
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$82,587
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
12.0%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
36.7%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
AZ-4
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
26.0%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
19.4%
19.3%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.4%
1.0%
2.0%
Other languages
1.0%
2.0%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
AZ-4
Arizona
United States
Catholic
—
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Arizona 4th Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−11.0%
2008
−6.9%
2012
−7.3%
2016
+2.5%
2020
+10.3%
2024
+6.7%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 25 House races · 18 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
4
D
52.7%176,428
45.5%152,052
334,545
2022
4
D
56.1%148,941
43.9%116,521
265,498
2020
4
R
30.2%120,503
69.7%278,007
398,623
2018
4
R
30.5%84,521
68.2%188,842
277,035
2016
4
R
28.5%81,296
71.5%203,487
284,783
2014
4
R
25.8%45,179
70.0%122,560
175,179
2012
4
R
28.4%69,154
66.8%162,907
243,760
2010
4
D
66.9%61,524
27.5%25,300
91,907
2008
4
D
72.1%89,721
21.2%26,435
124,427
2006
4
D
72.5%56,464
23.9%18,627
77,861
2004
4
D
70.1%77,150
25.7%28,238
110,027
2002
4
D
67.4%44,517
27.8%18,381
66,065
2000
4
R
32.7%71,803
64.0%140,396
219,497
1998
4
R
31.2%49,538
64.7%102,722
158,822
1996
4
R
33.2%74,857
66.8%150,486
225,343
1994
4
R
36.0%69,760
60.2%116,714
193,902
1992
4
R
26.7%70,572
59.2%156,330
264,066
1990
4
R
38.7%89,395
61.3%141,843
231,238
1988
4
R
0.0%0
87.1%206,248
236,678
1986
4
R
35.4%66,894
64.6%121,939
188,833
1984
4
R
0.0%0
100.0%167,558
167,615
1982
4
R
30.4%44,182
65.7%95,620
145,466
1980
4
R
37.4%85,046
62.6%142,565
227,611
1978
4
R
33.8%48,661
63.1%90,768
143,836
1976
4
R
48.2%92,435
48.6%93,154
191,590
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
D
56.1%193,281
41.1%141,582
344,337
2022
D
51.4%1,322,027
46.5%1,196,328
2,572,294
2020
D
51.2%1,716,634
48.8%1,638,060
3,355,307
2018
D
50.0%1,191,100
47.6%1,135,200
2,383,742
2016
R
40.8%1,031,245
53.8%1,359,761
2,529,768
2012
R
46.2%1,036,542
49.2%1,104,457
2,243,108
2010
R
34.8%592,011
59.1%1,005,615
1,702,326
2006
R
43.5%664,141
53.3%814,398
1,526,770
2004
R
20.6%404,507
76.7%1,505,372
1,961,677
2000
R
0.0%0
79.3%1,108,196
1,397,076
1998
R
27.2%275,224
68.8%696,577
1,013,093
1994
R
39.5%442,510
53.7%600,999
1,119,002
1992
R
31.6%436,321
55.8%771,395
1,382,025
1988
D
56.7%660,403
41.1%478,060
1,164,507
1986
R
39.5%340,965
60.5%521,850
862,815
1982
D
56.9%411,970
40.3%291,749
723,819
1980
R
48.4%422,972
49.5%432,371
874,225
1976
D
54.0%400,334
43.3%321,236
741,210
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Ruben Gallego · Democrat56.1%193,281
Kari Lake · Republican41.1%141,582
Eduardo Quintana · Green2.5%8,518
Write-In0.2%799
Sarah Williams0.0%118
Steven Cavin Sanders0.0%16
Christopher Beckett0.0%12
Jannie "Jannie" Prosser0.0%7
David Bozic0.0%2
Shawn Petty0.0%2
Arizona's 4th stretches across rural and exurban terrain west and south of Phoenix, where Republican presidential candidates have carried the district by margins exceeding 40 points, making it among the most one-sided congressional seats in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 10.3 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 11.0 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 6.7 points.
A population of 794,611, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,587 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 48 and Congressional District 49.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Arizona 4th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0404/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Arizona 4th Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona 4th Congressional District voted Democratic by 6.7 points (D+6.7), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 347,611 votes cast, 182,893 went Democratic and 159,723 went Republican.
When did Arizona 4th Congressional District last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Arizona 4th Congressional District voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Arizona 4th Congressional District?
Arizona 4th Congressional District has a population of 794,611 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona 4th Congressional District?
Median household income in Arizona 4th Congressional District is $82,587 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona 4th Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Arizona 4th Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.
