congressional districtArizona 3rd Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004D+28.2
2008D+32.7
2012D+46.8
2016D+50.0
2020D+50.7
2024D+39.7
net swing · 2004→2024D+11.5D+28.2 → D+39.7
vs. U.S. · 2024D+41.2D+39.7 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 45.5% of 468,979 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
147,521
62,762
3,047
213,330
468,979
45.5%
2020
170,886
54,723
3,676
229,285
441,260†
52.0%
2016
120,944
36,312
12,150
169,406
398,407†
42.5%
2012
103,036
36,387
2,968
142,391
363,988†
39.1%
2008
87,348
43,788
2,056
133,192
350,251†
38.0%
2004
73,088
40,516
1,869
115,473
336,514†
34.3%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupAZ-3ArizonaUnited States
Mexican52.8%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican1.4%0.7%1.8%
Guatemalan1.0%0.4%0.5%
Spaniard1.0%0.5%—
Cuban0.8%0.3%0.7%
Salvadoran0.8%0.3%0.7%
Spanish0.8%0.4%—
Colombian0.4%0.2%0.4%
German7.3%12.6%12.5%
English5.8%10.2%9.5%
Irish5.2%8.9%9.4%
Italian2.6%4.1%4.8%
American2.5%4.0%5.3%
Polish1.3%2.0%2.2%
French1.0%1.8%1.6%
Scottish1.0%1.7%1.3%
African American†9.1%3.6%9.9%
African0.8%0.3%0.5%
Nigerian0.4%—0.2%
Asian Indian0.8%0.9%1.4%
Chinese0.5%0.6%1.3%
Filipino0.5%0.7%0.9%
Vietnamese0.4%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.2%0.3%0.4%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
AZ-3
Arizona
United States
Median age
31.2
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
9.3%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
16.3%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
AZ-3
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$68,202
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
18.9%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
36.7%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
AZ-3
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
26.0%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
19.4%
19.3%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.4%
1.0%
2.0%
Other languages
1.0%
2.0%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
AZ-3
Arizona
United States
Catholic
—
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Arizona 3rd Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
+28.2%
2008
+32.7%
2012
+46.8%
2016
+50.0%
2020
+50.7%
2024
+39.7%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 25 House races · 18 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
3
D
70.9%143,336
26.6%53,705
202,065
2022
3
D
77.0%108,599
23.0%32,475
141,074
2020
3
D
64.6%174,243
35.4%95,594
269,837
2018
3
D
63.9%114,650
36.1%64,868
179,518
2016
3
D
98.6%148,973
0.2%332
151,035
2014
3
D
55.7%58,192
44.2%46,185
104,428
2012
3
D
58.4%98,468
37.1%62,663
168,698
2010
3
R
41.1%85,610
52.2%108,689
208,071
2008
3
R
42.1%115,759
54.1%148,800
275,161
2006
3
R
38.2%72,586
59.3%112,519
189,849
2004
3
R
0.0%0
80.1%181,012
225,974
2002
3
R
30.3%47,173
67.3%104,847
155,751
2000
3
R
31.4%94,676
65.7%198,367
301,970
1998
3
R
32.7%66,979
67.3%137,618
204,623
1996
3
R
33.5%88,214
66.5%175,231
263,445
1994
3
R
29.9%61,939
70.1%145,396
207,335
1992
3
R
34.4%88,830
61.5%158,906
258,503
1990
3
R
43.4%103,018
56.6%134,279
237,297
1988
3
R
28.6%72,417
68.9%174,453
253,330
1986
3
R
0.0%0
100.0%146,462
146,462
1984
3
R
26.5%57,748
71.8%156,686
218,328
1982
3
R
36.7%58,644
63.3%101,198
159,842
1980
3
D
64.3%141,448
30.0%65,845
219,822
1978
3
D
85.0%111,850
0.0%0
131,663
1976
3
D
47.5%88,854
42.3%79,162
187,165
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
D
72.9%154,813
24.0%50,865
212,281
2022
D
51.4%1,322,027
46.5%1,196,328
2,572,294
2020
D
51.2%1,716,634
48.8%1,638,060
3,355,307
2018
D
50.0%1,191,100
47.6%1,135,200
2,383,742
2016
R
40.8%1,031,245
53.8%1,359,761
2,529,768
2012
R
46.2%1,036,542
49.2%1,104,457
2,243,108
2010
R
34.8%592,011
59.1%1,005,615
1,702,326
2006
R
43.5%664,141
53.3%814,398
1,526,770
2004
R
20.6%404,507
76.7%1,505,372
1,961,677
2000
R
0.0%0
79.3%1,108,196
1,397,076
1998
R
27.2%275,224
68.8%696,577
1,013,093
1994
R
39.5%442,510
53.7%600,999
1,119,002
1992
R
31.6%436,321
55.8%771,395
1,382,025
1988
D
56.7%660,403
41.1%478,060
1,164,507
1986
R
39.5%340,965
60.5%521,850
862,815
1982
D
56.9%411,970
40.3%291,749
723,819
1980
R
48.4%422,972
49.5%432,371
874,225
1976
D
54.0%400,334
43.3%321,236
741,210
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Ruben Gallego · Democrat72.9%154,813
Kari Lake · Republican24.0%50,865
Eduardo Quintana · Green2.9%6,246
Write-In0.2%320
Sarah Williams0.0%19
Christopher Beckett0.0%6
Jannie "Jannie" Prosser0.0%5
Shawn Petty0.0%3
Steven Cavin Sanders0.0%2
David Bozic0.0%1
Benjamin Rodriguez0.0%1
Arizona's 3rd anchors in west Phoenix and its inner suburbs, where a heavily Latino electorate has delivered Democratic presidential margins exceeding 14 points, making it one of the more reliably left-leaning seats in the state's congressional map.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 50.7 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 10.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 39.7 points.
A population of 794,612, a 20% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,202 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 7 and Congressional District 29.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arizona 3rd Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0403/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Arizona 3rd Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona 3rd Congressional District voted Democratic by 39.7 points (D+39.7), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 213,330 votes cast, 147,521 went Democratic and 62,762 went Republican.
How many people live in Arizona 3rd Congressional District?
Arizona 3rd Congressional District has a population of 794,612 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona 3rd Congressional District?
Median household income in Arizona 3rd Congressional District is $68,202 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona 3rd Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Arizona 3rd Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
