- Lead
- 34,982
- Total
- 418,229
- vs nation
- D+9.8
Virginia 10th Congressional District
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 65,801
- Total
- 412,351
- vs nation
- D+11.5
- Lead
- 26,344
- Total
- 346,092
- vs nation
- D+5.5
- Lead
- 3,083
- Total
- 314,062
- vs nation
- R+4.8
- Lead
- 3,498
- Total
- 281,614
- vs nation
- R+6.0
- Lead
- 44,071
- Total
- 232,790
- vs nation
- R+16.5
- Lead
- 37,205
- Total
- 176,092
- vs nation
- R+21.6
- Lead
- 25,069
- Total
- 131,141
- vs nation
- R+27.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+8.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 784,2662024 5-year
- Population density
- 464 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,691 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $162,3592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 8.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 17.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+63.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.7 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 6, MD · twin score 81.2
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 10th Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
57.0%
235,070 votes · D+16.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 52.9%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
59.1%
137,609 votes · R+18.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 49.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
235,070votes
57.0% of the vote · D+16.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 221,206 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
186,224votes
44.5% of the vote · D+8.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 169,269 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+11.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+16.0 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +9.8 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+16.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+18.9 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +6.0 pts
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
On the ballot
Democrat Suhas Subramanyam holds the seat and is contesting it.
Primary held August 4, 2026. Akashic does not yet carry the nominees for this contest.
How the seat has run
| Year | U.S. House | President | Ran ahead |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D+4.5Suhas Subramanyam | D+8.4 | −3.8 |
| 2022 | D+6.5Jennifer Wexton | — | — |
| 2020 | D+13.1Jennifer Wexton | D+16.0 | — |
| 2018 | D+12.4Jennifer T Wexton | — | — |
“Ran ahead” is how far the winning party’s House candidate ran ahead of that party’s presidential margin in the same district. A dash means the House race and the presidential figure were measured on different district lines, so the two cannot be subtracted — both are still shown unchanged.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Virginia's 10th stretches from the D.C. suburbs through the Shenandoah foothills, drawing a workforce heavily tied to government contracting and federal agencies — a demographic pattern that has pushed its presidential margins steadily toward double digits.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 63.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 49.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 7.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.4 points.
A population of 784,266, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $162,359 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 6 and Congressional District 11.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Virginia 10th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/5110/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.